With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, traders are positioning themselves for what’s to come after Nov. 5 and how a new administration will respond to factors affecting finan...

<div><div><div><ul><li><div>Over the past decade, the average return for bitcoin in the second half of October was twice that of the first half.</div></li><li><div>Options markets show a bullish bias for the November and December expirations.</div></li><li><div>The impact of the U.S. election would have the greatest effect on dogecoin and Cardano's ADA.</div></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div></div><div></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><p>With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, traders are positioning themselves for what’s to come after Nov. 5 and how a new administration will respond to factors affecting financial markets, including crypto.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Crypto has been in an uptrend over the past week, with Chinese stimulus, Western central bank rate cuts, and perhaps the U.S. elections coming into clearer focus among the reasons cited for recent gains.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>While cryptos have only really been popular assets for one presidential election in the past (2020), the <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/04/bitcoins-poor-start-to-bullish-october-continues-but-there-may-be-cheer-ahead-for-bulls/" rel="nofollow"><u>second half of October</u></a> typically marks the beginning of a bullish period for financial assets like stocks, so crypto's move of late is perhaps not that unusual.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Indeed, a look at bitcoin <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/" title="Bitcoin Price | BTC Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(BTC)</a> shows the second half of October (16-31) produces double the returns of the first half of the month (1-15), according to Coinglass data from 2013 to 2023.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/EPMZ8ne0ONl8r4oa3CLW_Uih-6Q=/560x313/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/BTU6SAXM7FFJXDMSULANSY3QHM.png" alt="(Source: Coinglass)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Coinglass)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><h2>Election effects</h2></div></div><div><div><p>Data from ETC Group, part of Bitwise Asset Management, showcased the uncertainty of token prices depending on election results.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>Using an implied performance against a theoretical value, ETC Group found bitcoin could move up to 10% in either direction based on the election. Given the current spot price just shy of $68,000, a 10% upside move would mean a new record high, surpassing March's $73,697. The team also found that the impact of the election would likely have the greatest effect on Cardano <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/cardano/" title="Cardano Price | ADA Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(ADA)</a> and <u>Dogecoin <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/dogecoin/" title="Dogecoin Price | DOGE Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(DOGE)</a></u>, with a 18% and 20% moves, respectively.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/VcfzXU3gMgJoszxKcKHdnhE4FRE=/560x329/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/VFSU2IXO5JGTBMSMAQ26QXQMQM.png" alt="(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>In addition, data from Ycharts looking at presidential election years since 1950 shows the stock market tends to bottom out in September and/or October and then rally into November. So far, we're seeing just that with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, each of which have been on the rise since early last month.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/zumoMQmimd1Oz5hK1i2Kk5rE6FA=/560x389/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/DRP4VT7S5BAX3L3B6KE4HSTNLA.png" alt="(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>Looking beyond the U.S. election, the <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/16/bitcoins-inverse-ties-with-dollar-index-challenged-as-us-election-looms/" rel="nofollow"><u>options market</u></a> shows a bullish bias towards bitcoin with the majority of call open interest at the $70,000 and $80,000 strike prices. These strike prices are worth $141 million and $120 million in notional value, respectively, for the Nov. 29 expiry.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>The Dec. 27 expiry has an even more bullish bias, with the majority of call open interest at the $100,000 strike price worth over $620 million in notional value, according to Deribit data.</p></div></div><div><div><p>“As we approach the US election with Trump as the most likely outcome and even Harris looking okay from a digital asset perspective, the broader digital asset ecosystem is indeed becoming more likely to become mainstream,” Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at British multinational bank Standard Chartered, wrote in a note on Tuesday.</p></div></div><div><div><p>“For BTC this means a bleed up towards the all-time high of $73,000 looks likely pre-election.”</p></div></div><div><p>Edited by Stephen Alpher.</p></div></div>

History Suggests Crypto’s Bullish Momentum Should Continue Into the U.S. Election and Afterwards

距离美国总统大选还不到三周时间,交易者正在为11月5日之后的情况做准备,以及新政府将如何应对影响金融...

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以下是文章的简体中文翻译:

<div><div><div><ul><li><div>在过去十年中,10月下半月比特币的平均回报是上半月的两倍。</div></li><li><div>期权市场显示11月和12月到期日存在看涨偏好。</div></li><li><div>美国大选的影响将对Dogecoin和Cardano的ADA产生最大影响。</div></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div></div><div></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><p>距离美国总统大选还不到三周时间,交易者正在为11月5日之后的情况做好准备,以及新政府将如何应对影响金融市场(包括加密货币)的因素。</p></div></div><div><div><p>在过去一周,加密货币呈上升趋势,中国刺激措施、西方央行降息以及可能的美国大选成为最近涨幅的原因。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>尽管加密货币在过去只在一次总统选举中(2020年)成为受欢迎的资产,但10月下半月通常标志着金融资产(如股票)进入看涨期,所以加密货币最近的走势或许并不太异常。</p></div></div><div><div><p>事实上,从2013年到2023年的Coinglass数据来看,BTC 10月下半月(16-31日)的回报是上半月(1-15日)的两倍。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/EPMZ8ne0ONl8r4oa3CLW_Uih-6Q=/560x313/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/BTU6SAXM7FFJXDMSULANSY3QHM.png" alt="(Source: Coinglass)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Coinglass)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><h2>选举影响</h2></div></div><div><div><p>ETC Group(Bitwise资产管理公司的一部分)的数据显示,代币价格取决于选举结果存在不确定性。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>根据隐含的表现与理论价值,ETC Group发现BTC可能会根据选举结果上下波动10%。鉴于当前现货价格接近68,000美元,10%的上涨将意味着创下新高,超过3月的73,697美元。该团队还发现,选举的影响可能会对Cardano(ADA)和Dogecoin(DOGE)产生最大影响,分别上涨18%和20%。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/VcfzXU3gMgJoszxKcKHdnhE4FRE=/560x329/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/VFSU2IXO5JGTBMSMAQ26QXQMQM.png" alt="(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>此外,Ycharts的数据显示,自1950年以来的总统选举年中,股市通常在9月和/或10月触底,然后在11月反弹。到目前为止,我们看到标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数自上月初以来一直在上涨。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/zumoMQmimd1Oz5hK1i2Kk5rE6FA=/560x389/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/DRP4VT7S5BAX3L3B6KE4HSTNLA.png" alt="(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>超越美国大选,期权市场显示对BTC持有看涨偏好,大部分看涨头寸集中在70,000美元和80,000美元的行权价上,分别对应11月29日到期的1.41亿美元和1.2亿美元的名义价值。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>12月27日到期日的看涨偏好更加明显,大部分看涨头寸集中在100,000美元的行权价上,对应着6.2亿美元的名义价值,根据Deribit的数据。</p></div></div><div><div><p>"随着我们接近美国大选,特朗普成为最可能的结果,甚至哈里斯在数字资产方面看起来也不错,整个数字资产生态系统确实更有可能走向主流,"标准chartered银行全球数字资产研究主管Geoffrey Kendrick在周二的一份报告中写道。</p></div></div><div><div><p>"对于BTC来说,这意味着在大选前有可能会向7.3万美元的历史高点缓慢攀升。"</p></div></div><div><p>由Stephen Alpher编辑。</p></div></div>

历史表明，加密货币的看涨势头应该会持续到美国大选及以后

随着美国总统选举民意调查显示紧张的竞争局势,加密货币投资者正在为波动性做好准备。但选举结果对加密货币未来的重要性如何?

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2024 年美国大选：做好准备应对影响

交易者寻求BTC的上行敞口,尽管外汇期权显示美元指数存在看多偏好。

美国大选临近，比特币与美元指数的反向联系面临挑战

数字资产终于开始关注不仅是11月特朗普胜利的日益增长的可能性,也关注共和党的席卷,标准银行的Geoff Kendrick表示。
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