Is the post-election rally over?
The S&amp;P 500 is now trading below November 5th levels and has erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap in ~4 weeks.
Rising "term premiums" are pressuring stocks, something you will hear A LOT in 2025.
What does it mean? Let us explain.
(a thread) 

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选举后的反弹已经结束了吗?
标准普尔500指数现在交易价格低于11月5日的水平,在大约4周内抹去了2.5万亿美元的市值。
不断上升的"期限溢价"正在压制股票,这是你在2025年会听到很多的事情。
这意味着什么?让我们解释一下。
(一个线程)

来源：Galaxy Research；翻译：金色财经xz
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Zcash 凭借 Zebra 3.1 和ZEC代币的未来质押功能实现了大胆飞跃。

By now, you've probably heard that inflation is back on the rise.
As a result, there has been a NOTABLE shift higher in consumer inflation expectations.
In a matter of weeks, consumers have seen long-run inflation rising from 2.6% to 3.3%.
This is a MASSIVE shift. 

到目前为止，您可能已经听说通货膨胀又开始上升了。
因此，消费者的通胀预期出现了显著的上升。
短短几周内，消费者就看到长期通胀率从 2.6% 上升到 3.3%。
这是一个巨大的转变。

The rise in inflation expectations has resulted in a rapid spike in "term premiums."
This is the premium that investors demand for the risk of taking on long-term debt.
Long-term debt has MORE risk if inflation is unstable.
This is why rates are RISING and the Fed CUTS. 

通胀预期上升导致“期限溢价”迅速飙升。
这是投资者承担长期债务风险所要求的溢价。
如果通胀不稳定，长期债务的风险更大。
这就是利率上升和美联储降息的原因。

Term premiums have spiked to ~0.55%, the highest in over 10 YEARS.
With CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation on the rise, general market-wide uncertainty has surged.
Bond investors are demanding compensation for this risk.
Bookmark this thread, you will hear about it a lot in 2025. 

期限溢价已飙升至约 0.55%，为 10 多年来的最高水平。
随着 CPI、PPI 和 PCE 通胀率上升，整个市场的不确定性激增。
债券投资者要求对这种风险进行补偿。
收藏此帖子，您将在 2025 年听到很多关于它的消息。

Here's a chart of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
This is the yield that will effectively grow your capital in-line with inflation.
Note, it is up from the 2024 low but generally in its last 3-year range.
This brings us to the next crucial point. 

这是国库通胀保值证券 (TIPS) 的图表。
这是能有效让您的资本与通胀同步增长的收益率。
请注意，它从 2024 年的低点上涨，但一般处于过去 3 年的范围内。
这将我们带到了下一个关键点。

Without the recent surge in term premiums, we may not have seen a significant steepening of the yield curve.
This means that rising term premiums are a result of less rate cuts being expected.
In fact, it may even reflect that interest rate HIKES are back on the table. 

如果没有近期期限溢价的飙升，我们可能就不会看到收益率曲线的显著陡化。
这意味着期限溢价上升是由于预期降息幅度减少。
事实上，这甚至可能反映出加息又回到了桌面上。

This came at the worst possible time for stocks.
Fund managers were the more bullish of stocks than any time in recent history.
Cash allocation fell to a RECORD low with equity allocation nearing 40%!
In fact, not even 2001 or 2008 saw equity allocation at these levels. 

这对股市来说是最糟糕的时刻。
基金经理对股票的看涨情绪比近代历史上任何时候都强烈。
现金配置降至历史最低水平，股票配置接近 40%！
事实上，即使是 2001 年或 2008 年，股票配置也未曾达到过这样的水平。

On Friday, we posted this alert as the S&amp;P 500 fell into 5830.
Our premium members took SHORTS ahead of the drop.
Now cashing in +60 points in pre-market trade, it pays to follow technicals and these key trends.
Subscribe below to access our alerts:

周五，我们在标准普尔 500 指数跌至 5830 点时发布了此警报。
我们的高级会员在跌幅前采取了卖空策略。
现在在盘前交易中获利 +60 点，跟踪技术面和这些关键趋势是值得的。
在下方订阅以访问我们的警报：

Generally speaking, rising term-premiums are NOT something you see in a bull market.
As seen in the chart below, term-premiums fell before the Dot-com bubble but then spiked SHARPLY in 2001.
The same thing was seen in 2006 through 2008.
This is concerning for stocks in 2025. 

一般来说，在牛市中，期限溢价不会上升。
如下图所示，期限溢价在互联网泡沫之前下降，但在 2001 年急剧上升。
2006 年至 2008 年也出现了同样的情况。
这对于 2025 年的股票来说是令人担忧的。

Adding fuel to the fire is the US Dollar Index, $DIX, which just broke above 110.00.
This marks the first break above that level since November 2022.
The US Dollar has strengthened by ~10% since rate cuts began.
This is NOT what you typically see in a "Fed pivot." 

火上浇油的是美元指数 $DIX，它刚刚突破 110.00。
这是自 2022 年 11 月以来首次突破该水平。
自降息开始以来，美元已升值约 10%。
这不是你通常在“美联储转向”中看到的情况。

The market can become significantly more profitable in times of uncertainty.
Having the right strategy and avoiding a bias is crucial in these times.
Want to see how we are trading it?
Subscribe to our premium analysis and alerts at the link below:

在不确定时期，市场可以变得更加有利可图。
在这种时候，制定正确的策略并避免偏见至关重要。
想看看我们如何交易吗？
通过以下链接订阅我们的高级分析和警报：

Lastly, the relationship between Gold and the US Dollar, $DXY, emphasize just how broken the "Fed pivot" is.
Gold is QUADRUPLING $DXY's positive return over the last ~13 months.
This almost never happens.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real-time analysis as this develops. 

最后，黄金与美元（$DXY）之间的关系突显了“美联储转向”的破灭程度。
过去约 13 个月，黄金的正回报率是 $DXY 的四倍。
这种情况几乎从未发生过。
关注我们 @KobeissiLetter 了解事态发展的实时分析。