There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report.
Core prices rose 0.23%, which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous 12 months (meaning six months were above and six months were below).
This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters, but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August ... and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead, then this report doesn't change your underlying view.
And if you thought inflation was going to take longer to pass through and pack less punch because companies are trying to preserve market share in an economy with less demand, this report doesn't change that view, either.
See you on August 12 for the July CPI
https://wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-cpi-inflation-tariffs-07-15-2025/card/why-the-june-cpi-isn-t-a-gamechanger-for-the-fed-ZHzs1E49A88y0vD6Ozwd…

CPI is close to consensus. Not as mild as May.
Core prices rose 0.23% in June. 12-month inflation was 2.9%
Headline prices rose 0.29%. 12-month inflation was 2.6%.

Nick Timiraos

Twitter

今天的消费者价格指数报告可能具有选择性叙事的特质。

核心价格上涨0.23%，恰好是过去12个月核心价格环比上涨的中位数（意味着6个月高于中位数，6个月低于中位数）。

这略微低于一些预测者的预期，但底线是大多数预测者预计7月和8月将出现更明显的关税影响，而商品价格在6月份更为坚挺。如果你认为关税驱动的价格上涨最严重的时期尚未到来，那么这份报告并不会改变你的基本观点。

如果你认为通货膨胀需要更长时间传导，并且由于公司试图在需求较低的经济环境中保持市场份额而影响较小，那么这份报告也不会改变这一观点。

8月12日见，届时将公布7月的消费者价格指数

作者 | 十四君
1. 前言
一转眼，笔者已然在 wallet 赛道里耕耘 4 年了。很多人觉得 2025 年的钱包赛道已经固化，但事实并非如此 — — 它正在暗流涌动，这一年里：
· Coinbase 新发布 CDP 钱包，底层基于 TEE 技术构建；
· Binance 的 MPC 钱包，将密钥分片托管引入 TEE 环境；
· Bitget 上周刚发布社交登录功能，底层由 TEE 托管；
· ...

简述区块链钱包历史与 2025 市场格局

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“这看起来很诱人……”

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