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Indices remained fairly resilient on the backdrop of a negative delta outcome with the fed chair nomination. There really is no argument that Warsh is net-net the most hawkish of the lot…
Equity resilience on Friday was partially driven by month end flows, and there was the NVDA-OAI investment drama surfacing over the weekend; I don’t think Iran developments were market moving.
This will make for an interesting futures open and more importantly Monday close in the context of the first two points, as well as further time for the market to digest Warsh…
Overall, not great, especially considering how crypto has traded over the weekend. However, I do wonder if 2025 is offering us the playbook for how to trade this February given we’re all getting fairly bear’d up here…
Monday, the first trading day of Feb 2025 opened with a large gap down and an aggressive wick overnight, only to the close the day down 70 bps. From there, indices grinded up for two weeks into Feb OPEX, topping on the day of VIX Expiry.
You know what then ensued…

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We are *finally* entering the “last gasp” stage of this broader equity rally.
As the quoted tweet describes, both HTF tops (‘22 and ‘25) saw large caps and small caps diverge before everything rolls over and price discovery to the downside is permitted.
Every  x.com/Wild_Randomnes…

Mandelbrot

Twitter

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尽管联准会主席提名结果为负值，但指数依然保持了相当强的韧性。毫无疑问，沃什是所有候选人中最鹰派的…

周五股市的韧性部分得益于月末资金流入，周末英伟达(NVDA)与OAI的投资纠纷也引发了市场关注；我认为伊朗局势的发展并未对市场产生重大影响。

鉴于前两点，以及市场需要更多时间来消化沃什的言论，这将使期货市场开盘以及周一收盘更加引人注目…

总体而言，情况并不乐观，尤其考虑到加密货币在周末的交易表现。不过，鉴于我们现在都相当悲观，我不禁想知道2025年是否在为我们提供二月份的交易策略…

2025年2月的第一个交易日，星期一，市场大幅低开，隔夜走势强劲，最终收跌70个基点。此后，指数在2月选择权到期日前的两周内缓慢上涨，并在VIX指数到期日达到高峰。

接下来发生的事大家都知道了…

Polymarket 上一玩家 1 年交易 61,793 次，狂赚 10.6 万美元。

蚊子肉，滚出 10 万美元利润

身家千亿，出狱后客厅还在漏水。

CZ 最新专访：我不是传奇，只是个普通人

比特币和以太坊价格已从上周低点反弹，这让人Optimism认为底部可能已经出现。与此同时，巨鲸们正在大量买入，而加密货币ETF也出现了显著上涨……