While still in the capitulation zone, history shows that Bitcoin is approaching levels at which it reaches its price bottom and begins to recover.
This would come as a relief to diamond-handed users w...

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While still in the capitulation zone, history shows that Bitcoin is approaching levels at which it reaches its price bottom and begins to recover.
<adv/>This would come as a relief to diamond-handed users who have held through the several months of price correction. Notably, $BTC has been in a 4-month downtrend, and all indications point to a fifth unless the momentum shifts dramatically before the end of February.
<adv/><h2>Key Points</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Adaptive Z-Score dictates that $BTC is in the capitulation phase.</li>
<li>At the time of the analysis, this metric lies at -2.66, which is within the capitulation band.</li>
<li>Despite this, the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score indicates we are approaching a historical accumulation phase, where Bitcoin bottoms.</li>
<li>If true, this is a strong buying opportunity for Bitcoin, as a swing in momentum could spark a bullish price turnaround.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Bitcoin in the Capitulation Phase</h2>
A recent analysis from on-chain analytics provider CryptoQuant identified an optimistic development for $BTC as its correction persists. The analysis shared by verified author GugaOnChain uses the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Adaptive Z-Score to dictate which phase the pioneering cryptocurrency is in the market cycle.
It identified that Bitcoin is in the capitulation phase, marked with intense volatility and a predominant bearish trend. Although it might see a relief rally at times, like the jump from $60,000 to $70,000 between February 5 and 6, the structure remains bearish.
Notably, the $BTC MVRV Adaptive Z-Score measures whether Bitcoin is undervalued or not. It compares the market value to the asset’s realized value, which reflects the last price at which users moved their bitcoins.
At the time of the report, this metric lies at -2.66, within the capitulation band. For the uninitiated, an MVRV score between 0 and -3.0 is capitulation, while a score less than -3.0 is accumulation.
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<img src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/c35/c35ef5f38d8a236ecadec4cf2b260ac816f1f238.jpg"/>$BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant"&gt;
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$BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant</div>
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<h2>But There is a Catch</h2>
The analysis highlighted that, while the capitulation zone remains in play, the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score indicates we are approaching a historical accumulation phase. In simple terms, Bitcoin is nearing its price bottom, signaling seller exhaustion.
Interestingly, this is a strong buying opportunity for Bitcoin, as a swing in momentum could spark a bullish price turnaround. During the accumulation phase, the sharp price correction ends, and buyers step in to reclaim control of the market.
<h2>Bitcoin Bottom, Really?</h2>
Although this might sound optimistic, several other analysts share a conflicting view. Recently, XWIN Research highlighted that Bitcoin is in an early bear market and the current retracement is not a short sideways trend in a bull market.
Other analysts also expect $BTC to slide further from the current levels. Veteran trader Peter Barndt sees the asset’s bottom around $42,000, citing his famous banana chart. Traders are also increasingly betting on a decline to $48,000 by the end of the year, according to Kalshi data.
The strong arguments from both sides of the camp further add to the uncertainty in the crypto market. Meanwhile, the next direction $BTC will take will become clearer in the coming days.
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Bitcoin Approaching Historical Accumulation Phase as Price Bottom Nears

尽管比特币仍处于崩溃边缘，但历史表明，它正接近价格触底反弹的水平。

这对持有大量比特币的用户来说无疑是个好消息…

<div><div><div>虽然比特币仍处于崩溃边缘，但历史表明，它正在接近价格触底反弹的水平。<adv/>对于那些在几个月的价格调整期中一直持有比特币的用户来说，这无疑是个好消息。值得注意的是，比特BTC已经连续四个月处于下跌趋势，而且种种迹象表明，除非在二月底之前市场动能发生显著转变，否则下跌趋势还将持续五个月。<adv/><h2>重点</h2><ul><li>比特币市值与实际价值 (MVRV) 自适应 Z 分数表明， $ BTC正处于投降阶段。</li><li>分析时，此指标为 -2.66，处于投降区间内。</li><li>尽管如此，MVRV 自适应 Z 分数表明我们正接近历史性的累积阶段，比特币将触底反弹。</li><li>如果属实，这将是比特币的绝佳买入机会，因为动能的转变可能会引发价格上涨的反转。</li></ul><h2>比特币处于投降阶段</h2>链上分析提供商 CryptoQuant最近的一项分析指出，尽管BTC)的回调仍在持续，但前景仍然乐观。该分析由认证作者 GugaOnChain 分享，并使用比特币市值与实际价值 (MVRV) 自适应 Z 分数来判断这种开创性加密货币目前处于市场周期的哪个阶段。报告指出，比特币目前处于投降阶段，波动剧烈，整体呈现下跌趋势。尽管比特币价格偶尔会反弹，例如2月5日至6日期间从6万美元上涨至7万美元，但整体结构仍看跌。值得注意的是，BTCMVRV自适应Z评分衡量的是比特币是否被低估。它将市场价值与资产的已实现价值进行比较，已实现价值反映了用户最后一次交易比特币的价格。截至报告发布时，该指标为-2.66，处于投降区间。对于不熟悉该指标的人来说，MVRV评分在0到-3.0之间表示投降，而低于-3.0则表示累积。<div><img src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/c35/c35ef5f38d8a236ecadec4cf2b260ac816f1f238.jpg"/> $ BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant&quot;&gt;<div> $ BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant</div></div><h2>但其中另有隐情。</h2>分析结果显示，尽管投降区仍然存在，但MVRV自适应Z分数显示我们正接近历史性的累积阶段。简而言之，比特币价格接近底部，表明卖方力量已接近耗尽。有趣的是，这对比特币来说是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为动能的转变可能会引发价格的多头反转。在吸筹阶段，价格的急剧回调结束，买家将入场重新掌控市场。<h2>比特币真的触底了吗？</h2>尽管这听起来可能很乐观，但其他几位分析师却持相反观点。最近，XWIN Research指出，比特币正处于熊市初期，目前的回档并非多头市场中的短期横盘整理。其他分析师也预计比特BTC将从当前水准进一步下跌。资深交易员彼得·巴恩特(Peter Barndt)认为比特币的底部可能在42,000美元附近，并引用了他著名的香蕉图作为参考。根据Kalshi的数据，越来越多的交易员也押注比特币价格将在年底前跌至48,000美元。双方阵营的强硬论调进一步加剧了加密货币市场的不确定性。同时，BTC的下一步走势将在未来几天内逐渐明朗。</div></div></div>

比特币价格接近底部，正步入历史性的累积阶段

原文作者：何浩，华尔街见闻
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