A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium.
The so-what-statement:
"It would not be unusual for there to be one or more months in 2026 with declines in total payroll employment as large as -100,000 jobs, even if economic output was growing at the rate of potential output growth."
The paper suggests labor force growth is running at less than 10,000 per month: "Such a slowdown in potential labor force growth is unprecedented in recent history and would have significant implications for the U.S. economy." https://federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor-force-growth-breakeven-employment-and-potential-gdp-growth-20260402.html…

Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is  lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative.
Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been enough to

Nick Timiraos

Twitter

联准会经济学家的一份新报告得出结论：「盈亏平衡」就业成长接近零，这意味著即使经济处于均衡状态，任何一个月出现负就业成长的可能性几乎与正就业成长的可能性一样大。

其意义在于：

“即使经济产出以潜在产出成长率成长，2026 年出现一个或多个月份总就业人数减少 10 万人的情况也并不罕见。”

该报告指出，劳动力成长速度低于每月 1 万人：“这种潜在劳动力成长放缓在近代史上前所未有，并将对美国经济产生重大影响。”

Block 旗下的比特币项目比特币 at Block（Block 由 Twitter联创杰克·多西创立）刚刚宣布上线免费比特币水龙头，标记比特币分发模式的回归……

杰克·多西宣布了一项价值 100 万镁的项目，旨在免费赠送比特币。

微策略（Strategy）创办人 Michael Saylor 断言比特币已赢得全球叙事战，同时点名 BIP- […]
〈Michael Saylor 警告 BIP-110 是比特币最大威胁；四年周期已死、机构资本才是真主角〉这篇文章最早发布于动区BlockTempo《动区动趋-最具影响力的区块链新闻媒体》。

Michael Saylor 警告 BIP-110 是比特币最大威胁；四年周期已死、机构资本才是真主角

根据链上数据显示， Chainlink已按计划按季度解锁 1787.5 万枚 LINK 代币，价值约 1.65 亿美元。
在新增的供应量中，有 1487.5 万枚 LINK，……

Chainlink代币大规模解锁引发抛售担忧

Could be a consequence of Trump’s immigration policy

这可能是川普移民政策的后果。