With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, traders are positioning themselves for what’s to come after Nov. 5 and how a new administration will respond to factors affecting finan...

<div><div><div><ul><li><div>Over the past decade, the average return for bitcoin in the second half of October was twice that of the first half.</div></li><li><div>Options markets show a bullish bias for the November and December expirations.</div></li><li><div>The impact of the U.S. election would have the greatest effect on dogecoin and Cardano's ADA.</div></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div></div><div></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><p>With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, traders are positioning themselves for what’s to come after Nov. 5 and how a new administration will respond to factors affecting financial markets, including crypto.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Crypto has been in an uptrend over the past week, with Chinese stimulus, Western central bank rate cuts, and perhaps the U.S. elections coming into clearer focus among the reasons cited for recent gains.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>While cryptos have only really been popular assets for one presidential election in the past (2020), the <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/04/bitcoins-poor-start-to-bullish-october-continues-but-there-may-be-cheer-ahead-for-bulls/" rel="nofollow"><u>second half of October</u></a> typically marks the beginning of a bullish period for financial assets like stocks, so crypto's move of late is perhaps not that unusual.</p></div></div><div><div><p>Indeed, a look at bitcoin <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/" title="Bitcoin Price | BTC Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(BTC)</a> shows the second half of October (16-31) produces double the returns of the first half of the month (1-15), according to Coinglass data from 2013 to 2023.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/EPMZ8ne0ONl8r4oa3CLW_Uih-6Q=/560x313/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/BTU6SAXM7FFJXDMSULANSY3QHM.png" alt="(Source: Coinglass)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Coinglass)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><h2>Election effects</h2></div></div><div><div><p>Data from ETC Group, part of Bitwise Asset Management, showcased the uncertainty of token prices depending on election results.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>Using an implied performance against a theoretical value, ETC Group found bitcoin could move up to 10% in either direction based on the election. Given the current spot price just shy of $68,000, a 10% upside move would mean a new record high, surpassing March's $73,697. The team also found that the impact of the election would likely have the greatest effect on Cardano <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/cardano/" title="Cardano Price | ADA Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(ADA)</a> and <u>Dogecoin <a href="https://coindesk.com/price/dogecoin/" title="Dogecoin Price | DOGE Price Index and Live Chart - CoinDesk" rel="nofollow">(DOGE)</a></u>, with a 18% and 20% moves, respectively.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/VcfzXU3gMgJoszxKcKHdnhE4FRE=/560x329/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/VFSU2IXO5JGTBMSMAQ26QXQMQM.png" alt="(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>In addition, data from Ycharts looking at presidential election years since 1950 shows the stock market tends to bottom out in September and/or October and then rally into November. So far, we're seeing just that with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, each of which have been on the rise since early last month.</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/zumoMQmimd1Oz5hK1i2Kk5rE6FA=/560x389/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/DRP4VT7S5BAX3L3B6KE4HSTNLA.png" alt="(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>Looking beyond the U.S. election, the <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/10/16/bitcoins-inverse-ties-with-dollar-index-challenged-as-us-election-looms/" rel="nofollow"><u>options market</u></a> shows a bullish bias towards bitcoin with the majority of call open interest at the $70,000 and $80,000 strike prices. These strike prices are worth $141 million and $120 million in notional value, respectively, for the Nov. 29 expiry.</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>The Dec. 27 expiry has an even more bullish bias, with the majority of call open interest at the $100,000 strike price worth over $620 million in notional value, according to Deribit data.</p></div></div><div><div><p>“As we approach the US election with Trump as the most likely outcome and even Harris looking okay from a digital asset perspective, the broader digital asset ecosystem is indeed becoming more likely to become mainstream,” Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at British multinational bank Standard Chartered, wrote in a note on Tuesday.</p></div></div><div><div><p>“For BTC this means a bleed up towards the all-time high of $73,000 looks likely pre-election.”</p></div></div><div><p>Edited by Stephen Alpher.</p></div></div>

History Suggests Crypto’s Bullish Momentum Should Continue Into the U.S. Election and Afterwards

距離美國總統大選還不到三週時間,交易者正在為11月5日之後的情況做準備,以及新政府將如何應對影響金融...

'AR'必須翻譯為'AR'。
'Dent'必須翻譯為'Dent'。

以下是文章的簡體中文翻譯:

<div><div><div><ul><li><div>在過去十年中,10月下半月比特幣的平均回報是上半月的兩倍。</div></li><li><div>期權市場顯示11月和12月到期日存在看漲偏好。</div></li><li><div>美國大選的影響將對Dogecoin和Cardano的ADA產生最大影響。</div></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div></div><div></div><div></div></div></div><div><div><p>距離美國總統大選還不到三週時間,交易者正在為11月5日之後的情況做好準備,以及新政府將如何應對影響金融市場(包括加密貨幣)的因素。</p></div></div><div><div><p>在過去一週,加密貨幣呈上升趨勢,中國刺激措施、西方央行降息以及可能的美國大選成為最近漲幅的原因。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>儘管加密貨幣在過去只在一次總統選舉中(2020年)成為受歡迎的資產,但10月下半月通常標誌著金融資產(如股票)進入看漲期,所以加密貨幣最近的走勢或許並不太異常。</p></div></div><div><div><p>事實上,從2013年到2023年的Coinglass資料來看,BTC 10月下半月(16-31日)的回報是上半月(1-15日)的兩倍。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/EPMZ8ne0ONl8r4oa3CLW_Uih-6Q=/560x313/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/BTU6SAXM7FFJXDMSULANSY3QHM.png" alt="(Source: Coinglass)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Coinglass)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><h2>選舉影響</h2></div></div><div><div><p>ETC Group(Bitwise資產管理公司的一部分)的資料顯示,代幣價格取決於選舉結果存在不確定性。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>根據隱含的表現與理論價值,ETC Group發現BTC可能會根據選舉結果上下波動10%。鑑於當前現貨價格接近68,000美元,10%的上漲將意味著創下新高,超過3月的73,697美元。該團隊還發現,選舉的影響可能會對Cardano(ADA)和Dogecoin(DOGE)產生最大影響,分別上漲18%和20%。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/VcfzXU3gMgJoszxKcKHdnhE4FRE=/560x329/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/VFSU2IXO5JGTBMSMAQ26QXQMQM.png" alt="(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, ETC Group)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>此外,Ycharts的資料顯示,自1950年以來的總統選舉年中,股市通常在9月和/或10月觸底,然後在11月反彈。到目前為止,我們看到標準普爾500指數和納斯達克指數自上月初以來一直在上漲。</p></div></div><div><div><figure><picture><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><source></source><img src="https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/zumoMQmimd1Oz5hK1i2Kk5rE6FA=/560x389/filters:quality(80):format(jpg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/DRP4VT7S5BAX3L3B6KE4HSTNLA.png" alt="(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)"></picture><figcaption><span>(Source: Optimisticallie, YCharts)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><div><div><p>超越美國大選,期權市場顯示對BTC持有看漲偏好,大部分看漲頭寸集中在70,000美元和80,000美元的行權價上,分別對應11月29日到期的1.41億美元和1.2億美元的名義價值。</p></div></div></div><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div><p>12月27日到期日的看漲偏好更加明顯,大部分看漲頭寸集中在100,000美元的行權價上,對應著6.2億美元的名義價值,根據Deribit的資料。</p></div></div><div><div><p>"隨著我們接近美國大選,特朗普成為最可能的結果,甚至哈里斯在數字資產方面看起來也不錯,整個數字資產生態系統確實更有可能走向主流,"標準chartered銀行全球數字資產研究主管Geoffrey Kendrick在週二的一份報告中寫道。</p></div></div><div><div><p>"對於BTC來說,這意味著在大選前有可能會向7.3萬美元的歷史高點緩慢攀升。"</p></div></div><div><p>由Stephen Alpher編輯。</p></div></div>

歷史表明，加密貨幣的看漲勢頭應該會持續到美國大選及以後

隨著美國總統選舉民意調查顯示緊張的競爭局勢,加密貨幣投資者正在為波動性做好準備。但選舉結果對加密貨幣未來的重要性如何?

<ENS>必須翻譯為<ENS>。
<AR>必須翻譯為<AR>。
<Dent>必須翻譯為<Dent>。
<Ren>必須翻譯為<Ren>。
'加密'必須翻譯為'加密'。

2024 年美國大選：做好準備應對影響

交易者尋求BTC的上行敞口,儘管外匯期權顯示美元指數存在看多偏好。

美國大選臨近，比特幣與美元指數的反向聯繫面臨挑戰

數字資產終於開始關注不僅是11月特朗普勝利的日益增長的可能性,也關注共和黨的席捲,標準銀行的Geoff Kendrick表示。
<'OP' must be translated into 'OP'>
<'AR' must be translated into 'AR'>