While still in the capitulation zone, history shows that Bitcoin is approaching levels at which it reaches its price bottom and begins to recover.
This would come as a relief to diamond-handed users w...

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While still in the capitulation zone, history shows that Bitcoin is approaching levels at which it reaches its price bottom and begins to recover.
<adv/>This would come as a relief to diamond-handed users who have held through the several months of price correction. Notably, $BTC has been in a 4-month downtrend, and all indications point to a fifth unless the momentum shifts dramatically before the end of February.
<adv/><h2>Key Points</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Adaptive Z-Score dictates that $BTC is in the capitulation phase.</li>
<li>At the time of the analysis, this metric lies at -2.66, which is within the capitulation band.</li>
<li>Despite this, the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score indicates we are approaching a historical accumulation phase, where Bitcoin bottoms.</li>
<li>If true, this is a strong buying opportunity for Bitcoin, as a swing in momentum could spark a bullish price turnaround.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Bitcoin in the Capitulation Phase</h2>
A recent analysis from on-chain analytics provider CryptoQuant identified an optimistic development for $BTC as its correction persists. The analysis shared by verified author GugaOnChain uses the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Adaptive Z-Score to dictate which phase the pioneering cryptocurrency is in the market cycle.
It identified that Bitcoin is in the capitulation phase, marked with intense volatility and a predominant bearish trend. Although it might see a relief rally at times, like the jump from $60,000 to $70,000 between February 5 and 6, the structure remains bearish.
Notably, the $BTC MVRV Adaptive Z-Score measures whether Bitcoin is undervalued or not. It compares the market value to the asset’s realized value, which reflects the last price at which users moved their bitcoins.
At the time of the report, this metric lies at -2.66, within the capitulation band. For the uninitiated, an MVRV score between 0 and -3.0 is capitulation, while a score less than -3.0 is accumulation.
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<img src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/c35/c35ef5f38d8a236ecadec4cf2b260ac816f1f238.jpg"/>$BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant"&gt;
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$BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant</div>
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<h2>But There is a Catch</h2>
The analysis highlighted that, while the capitulation zone remains in play, the MVRV Adaptive Z-Score indicates we are approaching a historical accumulation phase. In simple terms, Bitcoin is nearing its price bottom, signaling seller exhaustion.
Interestingly, this is a strong buying opportunity for Bitcoin, as a swing in momentum could spark a bullish price turnaround. During the accumulation phase, the sharp price correction ends, and buyers step in to reclaim control of the market.
<h2>Bitcoin Bottom, Really?</h2>
Although this might sound optimistic, several other analysts share a conflicting view. Recently, XWIN Research highlighted that Bitcoin is in an early bear market and the current retracement is not a short sideways trend in a bull market.
Other analysts also expect $BTC to slide further from the current levels. Veteran trader Peter Barndt sees the asset’s bottom around $42,000, citing his famous banana chart. Traders are also increasingly betting on a decline to $48,000 by the end of the year, according to Kalshi data.
The strong arguments from both sides of the camp further add to the uncertainty in the crypto market. Meanwhile, the next direction $BTC will take will become clearer in the coming days.
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Bitcoin Approaching Historical Accumulation Phase as Price Bottom Nears

儘管比特幣仍處於崩潰邊緣，但歷史表明，它正接近價格觸底反彈的水平。

這對持有大量比特幣的用戶來說無疑是個好消息…

<div><div><div>雖然比特幣仍處於崩潰邊緣，但歷史表明，它正在接近價格觸底反彈的水平。<adv/>對於那些在幾個月的價格調整期中一直持有比特幣的用戶來說，這無疑是個好消息。值得注意的是，比特BTC已經連續四個月處於下跌趨勢，而且種種跡象表明，除非在二月底之前市場動能發生顯著轉變，否則下跌趨勢還將持續五個月。<adv/><h2>重點</h2><ul><li>比特幣市值與實際價值 (MVRV) 自適應 Z 分數表明， $ BTC正處於投降階段。</li><li>分析時，此指標為 -2.66，處於投降區間內。</li><li>儘管如此，MVRV 自適應 Z 分數表明我們正接近歷史性的累積階段，比特幣將觸底反彈。</li><li>如果屬實，這將是比特幣的絕佳買入機會，因為動能的轉變可能會引發價格上漲的反轉。</li></ul><h2>比特幣處於投降階段</h2>鏈上分析提供商 CryptoQuant最近的一項分析指出，儘管BTC)的回調仍在持續，但前景仍然樂觀。該分析由認證作者 GugaOnChain 分享，並使用比特幣市值與實際價值 (MVRV) 自適應 Z 分數來判斷這種開創性加密貨幣目前處於市場週期的哪個階段。報告指出，比特幣目前處於投降階段，波動劇烈，整體呈現下跌趨勢。儘管比特幣價格偶爾會反彈，例如2月5日至6日期間從6萬美元上漲至7萬美元，但整體結構仍看跌。值得注意的是，BTCMVRV自適應Z評分衡量的是比特幣是否被低估。它將市場價值與資產的已實現價值進行比較，已實現價值反映了用戶最後一次交易比特幣的價格。截至報告發佈時，該指標為-2.66，處於投降區間。對於不熟悉該指標的人來說，MVRV評分在0到-3.0之間表示投降，而低於-3.0則表示累積。<div><img src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/c35/c35ef5f38d8a236ecadec4cf2b260ac816f1f238.jpg"/> $ BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant&quot;&gt;<div> $ BTC MVRV Z-Score/CryptoQuant</div></div><h2>但其中另有隱情。</h2>分析結果顯示，儘管投降區仍然存在，但MVRV自適應Z分數顯示我們正接近歷史性的累積階段。簡而言之，比特幣價格接近底部，表明賣方力量已接近耗盡。有趣的是，這對比特幣來說是一個絕佳的買入機會，因為動能的轉變可能會引發價格的多頭反轉。在吸籌階段，價格的急劇回調結束，買家將入場重新掌控市場。<h2>比特幣真的觸底了嗎？</h2>儘管這聽起來可能很樂觀，但其他幾位分析師卻持相反觀點。最近，XWIN Research指出，比特幣正處於熊市初期，目前的回檔並非多頭市場中的短期橫盤整理。其他分析師也預計比特BTC將從當前水準進一步下跌。資深交易員彼得·巴恩特(Peter Barndt)認為比特幣的底部可能在42,000美元附近，並引用了他著名的香蕉圖作為參考。根據Kalshi的數據，越來越多的交易員也押注比特幣價格將在年底前跌至48,000美元。雙方陣營的強硬論調進一步加劇了加密貨幣市場的不確定性。同時，BTC的下一步走勢將在未來幾天內逐漸明朗。</div></div></div>

比特幣價格接近底部，正步入歷史性的累積階段

原文作者：何浩，華爾街見聞
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