A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that "breakeven" job growth is near zero, which means negative job growth would be almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month even if the economy is at equilibrium.
The so-what-statement:
"It would not be unusual for there to be one or more months in 2026 with declines in total payroll employment as large as -100,000 jobs, even if economic output was growing at the rate of potential output growth."
The paper suggests labor force growth is running at less than 10,000 per month: "Such a slowdown in potential labor force growth is unprecedented in recent history and would have significant implications for the U.S. economy." https://federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/labor-force-growth-breakeven-employment-and-potential-gdp-growth-20260402.html…

Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is  lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative.
Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been enough to

Nick Timiraos

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聯準會經濟學家的一份新報告得出結論：「盈虧平衡」就業成長接近零，這意味著即使經濟處於均衡狀態，任何一個月出現負就業成長的可能性幾乎與正就業成長的可能性一樣大。

其意義在於：

“即使經濟產出以潛在產出成長率成長，2026 年出現一個或多個月份總就業人數減少 10 萬人的情況也並不罕見。”

該報告指出，勞動力成長速度低於每月 1 萬人：“這種潛在勞動力成長放緩在近代史上前所未有，並將對美國經濟產生重大影響。”

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Could be a consequence of Trump’s immigration policy

這可能是川普移民政策的後果。