Original | Liu Jiaolian
Last night the east wind blew in the small building.
Yesterday, BTC ( Bitcoin ) bulls suddenly exerted their strength, opening low and closing high at 63k, which is above the 30-day moving average of 62.9k. According to the 5.13 internal report, "90% of BTC addresses are profitable, how about you?", it can be seen that this is the high range. The bears are not willing to be outdone, and launched a counterattack this morning, pushing the battle line back below the 30-day moving average.
Today is May 14th. Friends who have experienced the bull market in 2021 may remember that there are only a few days left until May 19th. The situation on May 19th, 2021, may have been blurred by time. Jiaolian wrote an article "519, the setting sun is like blood" the day after the 519 crash to commemorate it.
That year, after hitting the first bull peak, BTC fluctuated at a high level, and barely maintained at the $50,000 level on May 14. But on the 15th, it began to crash, and it continued to crash for several days. Five days later, on May 19, it fell to a low of $29,000, which was a precise sniper, sweeping away the long leverage lurking below $30,000. The decline in 5 days exceeded 40%!
Jiaolian knows that BTC has been hanging around $60,000 for a long time, and many short sellers are eagerly hoping that the epic crash of "519" will happen again. This is like "not knowing about the Han Dynasty, not knowing about the Wei and Jin Dynasties", and trying to reverse history.
Before the first bull market of 2021 peaked at more than $60,000 on May 19, Jiaolian repeatedly warned people to pay attention to the risk of a correction. In the article “Opening at a Trillion” on May 11, it was directly written: “Opening at a trillion is a sign that the market cycle has peaked. The last straw that broke the camel’s back has opened our painful correction journey.”
However, just after the local bull peak of 60,000-70,000 dollars in early 2024, Jiaolian wants to say the exact opposite: it is not a crazy bull market now, and the market is far from reaching its peak. The good show has just begun. At present, BTC does not have the conditions for a long-term decline, and the shorts have already been drained. The shorts who short at this position will pay a heavy price for their unwiseness. Their positions that are wiped out will become the tribute sacrificed in this round of bull market.
Waiting to be on~Waiting to be on heavy makeup/The good show begins/On the stage, the bears sing alone about their sorrows and joys/Open a short position with a high leverage/Overnight explosion of hair dye cream
At the beginning of 2021, when the price hit the first bull peak, $60,000 was only $20,000 away from the middle track of the price corridor, which was a 200% increase! Even when the 519 crash occurred, the middle track had just reached $22,000. So the so-called "big crash" is nothing more than the normal return of the over-inflated BTC to the middle track. Even the low point of the crash, $29,000, was still above the middle track - that is, it is still in a bull market trend.
Today, the trend has changed. The current price has reached $79,000, while the current BTC is still hovering around $60,000. This means that the market price of BTC is at a negative premium compared to the "fair value". This should be called a good opportunity to increase positions.
If the bearish bulls just feel that the negative premium is not enough and want to wait for a bigger discount, then this is another form of "greed". Excessive greed will damage your own fortune, so you must not let yourself fall into excessive greed.
Even if a black swan event occurs once in a century like the "312" crash in 2020, it would be very difficult for the price to fall below $30,000 - because the lower track of the price corridor is now about $27,000, and it will officially rise to $30,000 by late July.
Who cut off the short position? It was Satoshi Nakamoto. In other words, it was the mechanism that Satoshi Nakamoto set when he invented Bitcoin in 2008 - halving the output.
Factors that affect the market include the game of ultra-short-term speculators, the confrontation of swing speculators, the entry and exit of long-term hoarders, and the impact of external macro-bullish and bearish factors, etc. If these factors reach a state of equilibrium, that is, neutralization, then there is only one thing that determines the balance of market power and changes the battlefield situation, that is, the excess ammunition supply of the bears - the increase in BTC issuance.
In May 2021, each block will release 6.25 BTC in excess to the market. On average, one block is created every ten minutes, which means six blocks per hour and 144 blocks per day. This means that short sellers can get an additional 900 BTC of excess ammunition every day. At $60,000, 900 BTC is enough to "eliminate" the purchasing power of $54 million per day.
Now, the excess supply of each block has been reduced by half to only 3.125 BTC. So, for the same 60,000 USD BTC, the excess supply of short sellers per day has dropped to 450 BTC, which is only enough to "eliminate" the purchasing power of 27 million USD per day.
We can also imagine an equivalent situation in reverse, that is, Satoshi Nakamoto becomes a buyer of unlimited US dollars. Compared with 2021, he will buy 450 more BTC and destroy them every day in May 2024 (!!!), no matter what the price of BTC is!
Satoshi Nakamoto’s hand of God is holding up BTC and reaching for the moon.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
