Take a look at "Time and Space" which I wrote when I was 22 years old in 2018. This was written when #btc 3000+, I went from shorting more than 10,000 to 3000+. At the beginning , the crypto was very primitive and there was not so much technical analysis. Even things like Wyckoff were learned by the KOLs who were introduced to the crypto by us.
The following is the main text, written in 2018.
In this #Crypto market for more than a year, there have been ups and downs, and people come and go. I have seen four or five people with 50,000 to 10 million, and four or five people with hundreds of millions. Even at the peak period, there were more than a billion dollars. But most people ended up with liquidation. Many people asked me, can futures really make money? Some people also asked me, isn’t futures just gambling? Yes, futures are gambling, and most people’s winning rate is even worse than gambling in Macau. But what I want to say is that life is full of gambling. I graduated from a famous university in North America and met too many investors, entrepreneurs, and scholars. Starting a business is gambling, it is gambling with your reputation and other people’s money, investing is gambling, choosing a university major is gambling, getting married is gambling, making friends is gambling, buying stocks is gambling, buying a house is gambling. Trading is gambling, everything is gambling, everything is speculation. The only difference is that successful people do the right thing at the right time. They are the same as others in space, but they beat others in time. The difference between value investment and speculation is only the difference in time. Just kidding, if you are trapped for a long time, you will naturally become a value investor.
Many of my classmates who graduated from Ivy League schools or famous domestic universities in the past few years, because they themselves also have a background in famous schools and their families are well-off, in the past few years of economic easing. A few people can easily raise millions of dollars or even hundreds of millions of dollars to start a business. This is the beginning of the bubble period. People began to swell and began to compete with each other to raise more money, rather than to compete with each other to make money. Those angel investors also do not believe whether they can really succeed, package them, sell them and cheat money. Isn’t Wang Kaixin of Magic Department Store like this? Many teachers in the entrepreneurial circle have supported such a liar. Have they not considered whether an 18-year-old girl really has this ability? Is it really the world of the post-90s now? Have others walked in vain? What’s more, the Theranos of Elizabeth, a female liar from a famous school in Silicon Valley, cheated 9 billion US dollars. Obama, Murdoch and even the smartest people in the world, the entire Silicon Valley, were fooled. There are many dropouts to start businesses, and value investment bulls are everywhere. Yu Minhong, Jack Ma, and Li Kaifu’s success studies have become popular.
When the wind is blowing, even pigs can take off. When the wind is blowing, the ones that fall to their death are all pigs. I used to envy those entrepreneurs who dropped out of school, who had tens of millions of dollars in venture capital. Can they really change the world? Now I know that some of them may not be as good as me, but at least I didn’t lose other people’s money. I don’t owe any debt. I used to think that entrepreneurship must accomplish something, but later I realized that entrepreneurship is about making others believe that you can accomplish things, forging fake users, daily active users, and selling them, and naturally valuable investors will take over. (I have invested in several companies and let others take over)
In fact, in my opinion, they are very good gamblers. They got the bottom of the bargain. Their success is not because of their excellent abilities. Of course, we cannot deny that they are all outstanding people, but what is more important is the concept of time. Mr. Li Xiaolai made people hoard coins at the right time and created a group of millionaires and multimillionaires. And Mr. Xu Xiaoping, at the beginning of 2017, waved his arm and let various funds enter the blockchain to take over. Which one of them did not lose more than 95% in 2017? Can you say that these funds are not as good as those who entered in 2017 or even 2015?
Winter is coming, and the bear market is coming. The value investment master Buffett has maintained zero retracement for decades. He sold Walmart in the middle of 2017, and increased his holdings of Apple shares in June and July. He holds more than 50 billion US dollars in Apple shares. In recent months, he has lost more than 10 billion US dollars. Can you say that his strategy is problematic? In fact, there is no problem. It is inevitable to be optimistic about Apple. The iPhone is part of human society, but how can an individual change the power of the big cycle? Even as strong as Buffett, he still suffered heavy losses.
Success is not 99% effort and 1% inspiration, but 70% following the trend and 30% effort. The difference between you and others is not because you are stupid, but because you don’t know the general trend. Just like trading, multi-level time resonance, the big cycle contains the small cycle. Count the waves in the wave.
The second generation of rich people who graduated from prestigious universities started businesses and used other people's money to gamble. People in casinos borrowed money from relatives and friends to gamble. Zhu Xiaohu made 3 billion US dollars by investing in ofo, and Jack Ma spent 3 billion US dollars to take over. Can you say that Jack Ma is not as good as Ma Huateng? Meituan, Qunar, Meitu, Pinduoduo, and Ele.me, these Internet companies that caught up with the wave are just like the bosses who built textile factories and coal mines during the reform and opening up. They caught up with the times, but they would not succeed in the next five years. Just like the coal bosses worth billions who continue to dig coal and expand, without realizing the world's major trends, the changes in global energy, the development of natural gas, and the inevitable decline in coal prices and crude oil. They are still expanding their scale, hoarding coal and digging coal, and finally billionaires are everywhere. (This is quite similar to the friends who got rich by entering the virtual currency market in 2017, and became billionaires with hundreds or even tens of thousands of times their money. They did not realize the essence of financial games, but continued to ICO, hold Bitcoin and even Altcoin, constantly buy the dips, and mining, and finally turned from billionaires into millionaires (Altcoin fell 99%, Bitcoin fell 85%). These are all real stories around me, and there is no false element at all. It is no exaggeration to say that I am 22 years old this year, and I don’t have much ability. It is because I realized the concept of time and short Bitcoin and US stocks that I have been able to live a worry-free life in the Bay Area, the most expensive place in the world (a house rents 5,000-10,000 dollars a month). In the bull market, I didn’t make as much money as retail investors. Because I didn’t dare to All In.
I am the pig on the wind. I may not be as good as most of my classmates in terms of space, but I stepped on the right time node, took off, and landed smoothly. I won.
In the next two or even five years, there will be a recession. What ordinary people need to do is not to invest and find a stable job. Just like I rarely long when Bitcoin falls below $6,000. When gambling, you have to bet on things with high probability.
If you understand the concepts of time and space, you can understand the beauty of time. For example, I can repeatedly buy the dips long Bitcoin at $6,200 and make a lot of money. But I can also short Bitcoin at $5,800 because it has fallen below the third time. Time has changed. The strategy has changed. This is also the timeliness of the strategy. (It is still very tiring to fluctuate tens of thousands of dollars per second)
Back to the original topic, many entrepreneurs look down on people in the secondary market. They think that we who trade are gamblers. I admit that, and I think we are all gamblers, so no one should look down on anyone else. Since everyone has no skills, let's cheat each other. At least we are still making money, we will not be on the list of deadbeats, we will not go against the trend, and we will not use other people's money to fulfill our dreams.
When trading, if you have the concept of time, the concept of stop loss can be separated from gambling, which only has the concept of space (how much money you win or lose). Of course, 90% of people are not suitable. What you need to do is just the big trend that comes once every ten years. Maintain a good cash flow and buy a big bottom from the third quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020. Don't try anything else. Just like Apple's stock, it has fallen by 30% compared to the middle of the year. But it is still not a good time to buy the dips in the long term. Many people who buy the dips around 190 have been buried.
In short, times have changed, and everyone should accept the reality. The Great Depression is coming soon. Reduce investment, reduce unnecessary expenses, don't give your own money to anyone, and live well. There is still a long way to go. (I predicted that the U.S. stock market would reach its peak before October 3rd, California time (the U.S. stock market was at the top of the peak at 26,828 points at that time). House prices reached their peak (some friends continued to buy houses, but they refused to listen to my advice. Three days later, the smashing of Country Garden began). A-shares continued to fall. I told everyone to sell their houses at a loss, and to go long on gold, short on commodities, Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and A-shares. A few days later, house prices in China and the United States and global stock markets plummeted in resonance. Now the rise in gold has come true. I have been short)
————— A young speculator X @CryptoApprenti1, written before Christmas Eve 2018
