Since the May Day holiday, Bitcoin has been experiencing a massive sell-off, with its price falling from $63,000 to around $56,000, with the largest daily drop exceeding 9%. On May 4, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, with its price approaching $65,000, and a daily increase of 9.3%.
Unlike the violent fluctuations of Bitcoin, the Altcoin have been cut in half and the rebound is very weak. The major communities are no longer as lively as they were a few months ago. Has Bitcoin peaked? Is the bull market over? What opportunities are there for ordinary people?
Vernacular Blockchain invited several Crypto KOLs to discuss these topics. The sharing guests include:
Dashuo ( @ruyan768, HashGlobal technical consultant, CreatorDAO founder)
Lao Bai (@Wuhuoqiu , ABCDE investment research partner, Amber Group research consultant)
Natalie (@0xnatalie860, ChainFeeds Researcher)
Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni, crypto researcher)
Note: The ranking is in no particular order, sorted by a.s.
1. The market has been quiet recently, and some people think that the bull market is over. What do you think?
Dashuo: The BTC bull market may have entered the middle stage, but the Web3 bull market has not yet started. There is a lot of pessimism in every bull market.
Lao Bai: That's impossible. Macroeconomic interest rate cuts are imminent (in the next 6-10 months), and Crypto has just passed its previous high. It's impossible for the long-term plan to end now.
Natalie: Due to the sideways trend of Bitcoin and the lack of hot narratives, the recent market has almost no wealth-creating effect, which will gradually dissipate the confidence of many people in the market. I always feel that no one can accurately predict the market cycle. The sideways price stagnation does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market, but may be a consolidation stage before the next trend. I still have a positive attitude towards the future.
Phyrex: According to historical trends, the bull market should not be over yet, or the real bull market may not have started yet. In the past, the halving cycle was the stage of big rise. Although the BTC spot ETF exploded ahead of time, the US election at the end of the year and the implementation of FASB will still help liquidity.
2. Why is this round of market different from previous cycles? What factors do you think are influencing this?
Dashuo: The biggest difference is not the money and the narrative, but the mentality of the old investors. Many old investors will miss out on the new narrative.
Lao Bai: There are too few 0-1 innovations and too many micro-innovations. Each one has billions of FDVs online, but the leeks cannot take over and there is no money-making effect.
Natalie: All cycles have their own market trends, and each stage has unique market dynamics. Simply comparing the current situation with past patterns is often not comprehensive enough. This year, the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs have significantly affected market sentiment and capital flows. The fluctuations of policy factors and macroeconomic factors are still important factors. For the cryptocurrency ecosystem, I think the changes in the Bitcoin ecosystem may become a turning point in this round of market.
Phyrex: The biggest difference in this round of market is the approval of the BTC spot ETF, which not only boosted everyone's confidence emotionally, but also net bought more than 530,000 BTC in four months. These BTCs have greatly reduced the selling pressure on the market.
3. Which tracks and narratives do you think will have a bright future in this round of market development?
Dashuo: The tracks I am optimistic about are RWA, AI, social networks, Meme, and games.
This round of RWA is driven by top institutions, and putting U.S. Treasuries on the chain is just the beginning. The scale and types of traditional assets on the chain will increase significantly within 1-2 years.
AI must be decentralized. This is a matter of human destiny, and everyone knows this.
Meme is the key to the mass adoption of Web3. No one understands Web3 technology, but everyone has their favorite meme. The opensea of the last bull market made many creators make a lot of money, and this round of pumpfun makes creative small pictures that can generate emotional value more valuable. This is what Web2 cannot do. Because of Memecoins, people can collaborate with more strangers on the Internet on a large scale.
Walter White: AI, Bitcoin, and games.
Natalie: Based on the macro impact and internal development of the ecosystem, I am optimistic about AI, intent (intention narrative), chain abstraction and Bitcoin infrastructure.
Phyrex: In this round, I am still optimistic about the DeFi and RWA tracks, but relatively speaking, there are still too few compliant projects that are mainly based on 2A and 3A securities (bonds). Currently, there is only BlackRock, because it has not officially started yet. But I believe that with the advancement of the stablecoin bill and the improvement of the US's supervision of the currency market, RWA is likely to be the next most popular one.
4. How do you view Ethereum’s future performance?
Dashuo: As the Base chain launched by Coinbase becomes more active, Ethereum will successfully verify the L2s development route. This year or next year, larger companies will build their own L2s, which is more important than the ETH ETF in my opinion. Ethereum will have an independent market when most people are bearish, provided that L2s is initially verified or at least one AVS of Eigenlayer reaches a market value of 3 billion US dollars.
Lao Bai: It’s neither hot nor cold. Unless the ETF is approved and a wave of money from outside the circle comes in, there is currently nothing worth hyping about the narrative of ETH in the circle.
Natalie: Although there are often comments about "XX flip Ethereum" and Ethereum's transaction volume has also decreased recently, Ethereum still occupies an unshakable position in the market and is still the focus of market attention and the starting point of the long-term successful narrative. The discussion in the Ethereum community has not diminished, and various interesting ideas have emerged one after another. Recently, I have noticed that Based rollup, ePBS and various account abstraction EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Proposals) are the most discussed.
Phyrex: It is hard to say about ETH. The current government is optimistic about the approval of spot ETFs. Even if the SEC determines that ETH is a security, there will be many subsequent troubles. Of course, this may not happen in the short term. If we simply look at the exchange rate between ETH and BTC, ETH still has a chance.
5. The current market environment is becoming less and less friendly to ordinary people, especially newcomers. There are too many pitfalls. What suggestions do you have for new friends?
Dashuo: Stay away from the noise, reduce the time spent on X (Twitter), and let Farcaster be your main source of information.
Lao Bai: There are increasingly unfriendly opinions every year. This is a sign of a mature market, just like the stock market. For newcomers, either just buy BTC and ETH to play the long-term cycle, or make up your mind to study and become an "expert".
Phyrex: Fixed investment. Don’t add any strategy, don’t add any leverage, and invest in BTC in a four-year cycle, hoping to get good returns.
Natalie: For beginners, it is recommended to first have a solid understanding of the basic concepts. Now is a good time to learn when market sentiment is relatively calm and there is no FOMO. While the gas is low, you can explore the on-chain operations and various DeFi nesting methods.
6. What are your expectations for the crypto market in the future, such as this year, one year from now, five years from now, and ten years from now?
Dashuo: As for the future, I would like to sum it up with a sentence from the founder of Coinbase: "onchain is the new online".
Lao Bai: The market has been tossing around for 10 years, but in essence, apart from BTC, there is still no breakthrough. Narratives are played out one after another, and bubbles are burst one after another. The expectation (or hope) is that in 3-5 years, one track such as DeFi, games, Depin, and AI will be able to break out of the circle and create some real commercial value, instead of being almost completely dominated by market dream rate and speculation.
Natalie: People tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term and underestimate the impact in the long term. No one can predict short-term market changes, but I have always been optimistic about the long-term development of blockchain since I entered the industry. In the future, I look forward to seeing more innovative applications that focus on frictionless experience between multiple chains and lower entry barriers.
Phyrex: In the short term, the Federal Reserve has no plans to cut interest rates, which has also postponed the timing of monetary easing. It is likely that interest rates will return to a low point and monetary easing will not begin until 2025 or 2026.
