The market has been a bit boring recently. Apart from the Ethereum ETF incident, other narratives seem to be only head inscriptions such as MEME and Ordi. The trend of Bitcoin is consistent with our judgment last week. In the short term, it is mainly weak and volatile. However, starting from June, the market should gradually show signs of rising. But don’t expect too much. The real bull market will be in Q4 and 2025, so during this period, you should buy at the lowest cost and hold for the rise.
There is a chance for the copycat level to return to the gaming track. Currently, funds are flowing into the gaming track. Some low-fdv products listed on binance still have a chance to be discovered and hyped by the market.
From a big cycle perspective, we are currently on the eve of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. The day after tomorrow will be beautiful, but tomorrow will be cruel. Many people will fall tomorrow. This includes abnormal economic data, the Mentougou incident, war conflicts, etc. We have to fight a protracted war, brothers, hold the value coins patiently, and then use a small amount of funds to buy Meme coins.
Several observations that may bring volatility to the market this week:
1. The US will release non-farm payrolls data this Friday
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which determines the U.S. benchmark interest rate, will meet again next week. Fed officials will enter a quiet period this week, so they are unlikely to make any public comments this week.
However, the US Department of Labor will release the latest non-farm payrolls data this Friday (7th). The market estimates that the number of employed people will decline from last month and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. However, if the results are significantly different from expectations, it may cause fluctuations.
2. ECB announces interest rate decision
A week earlier than the United States, the European Central Bank and the Canadian Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions on the 5th and 6th of this week respectively. The market estimates that the two central banks will each cut interest rates by 1 basis point (25 basis points) to boost the sluggish economy.
In the last ECB interest rate meeting, the rate hike was suspended for the fourth time and the balance sheet reduction plan was maintained, which was considered by the outside world to have ended the rate hike cycle. In the press conference after the meeting, President Christine Lagarde said that discussions would begin to relax the restrictive stance, suggesting that interest rates may be cut at the June interest rate meeting.
If the Ethereum ETF is launched ahead of schedule, it will be officially launched on July 4. It is not far from the time for Wall Street institutions to enter the market in a big way, so there is early speculation. Referring to the trend of BTC ETF speculation, BTC has risen from 27,000 to 49,000, and the speculation lasted for two months. If we judge according to the speculation trend of BTC, it can be divided into three rising stages. The first rising stage is the real rise due to false news!
When the news about Ethereum came out, many people actually did not believe it. It rose in hesitation. After the first wave of increase, it entered the first stage of consolidation. Then it increased again before the BTC ETF was officially approved. I personally think that Ethereum can launch the second wave of increase at any time, and then continue to consolidate, waiting for the news to be announced, and then make a wave of retracement. The biggest harvest season was two weeks after the news of the launch of Ethereum ETF trading, when it exploded from 40,000 to a new high of more than 73,000!
So, according to this trend, the rise of Ethereum this month may not break through the previous high. Even if it does, it will be an opportunity for phased shipments! Wait for the news to land and then take it back!
What we need to grasp at the moment is the rally from the first stage of consolidation to the second stage of consolidation. I personally feel that Ethereum has almost adjusted. It is likely to rise before the CPI data this month, and then start to fluctuate and consolidate. Before the news comes out, it will hit a new high again and then retrace! In other words, there should be a good market this week!
Judging from the weekly closing of Ethereum, the trend last week was still very strong. After all, after the big rise, the retracement was not too much, and the bulls still have the momentum to rush up again! From the technical analysis alone, the trend this week is also worth looking forward to!
As long as Ethereum starts the second wave of rise, the L2 project holdings in hand will surely rise again. However, judging from the pullback after this round of rise, although Ethereum did not fall back much, the performance of OP, STRK, and ARB is still relatively weak. In the middle of this month, STRK and ARB will usher in another wave of unlocking. Therefore, in terms of the general direction this week, if it is swing trading, as long as you achieve your profit target, you can take profits from the swing!
The benefit of making a trading plan in advance is that when the market really develops as we expected, we must remember to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and not let greed and fear affect our speculation. When it is time to buy the dips the bottom, be bold to buy the dips, and when it is time to stop profit, remember to stop profit decisively! Don't remember that you didn't buy enough when it is rising, and chase the rise to increase your position, raising your holding cost. When it falls, you have already filled your position halfway up the mountain and have no bullets. Plan your own transactions and trade your own plans! In this way, you will definitely make profits more easily!
July and August will be relatively easy months to make money, as the expected interest rate cut is approaching, and with the official launch of the Ethereum ETF, the altcoin season should officially arrive!
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