Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 99.4%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 0.6%。美联储到 8 月维持利率不变的概率为 91.1%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 8.8%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.1%。（金十）

美国CPI数据公布前美联储维持利率不变概率为99.4%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 91.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1%. (Jinshi)

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged before the release of US CPI data is 99.4%.

2024.06.12 - 1 hour ago Share to The most likely scenario is that Chairman Powell provides a similar tone to the recent Fed speeches at the press conference: that is, the next move may be to cut interest rates, but considering the stickiness of inflation data, emphasize patience.
Written by: Chen Min, Good Morning Currency Market
Tonight, the US CPI and FOMC interest rate meeting will be staged one after another, with no more than 6 hours between them. After the non-agricultural data, there may be another night of horror.
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Since there is almost no suspense about the interest rate decision itself (the interest rate will remain unchanged at the June policy meeting), now almost all...

Fright Night: FOMC Watch

The Fed added a sentence to its statement after its last meeting on May 1: "further progress" in bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. If the May inflation report released on Wednesday shows further signs of improvement, the Fed may remove this sentence from the statement. This would be an encouraging sign that policymakers may cut the benchmark interest rate within a few months. However, most economists believe that a rate cut is unlikely before September at the earliest. (ABCNEWS)

Inflation data this week could help determine the timing of the Fed's rate cuts

Odaily Odaily News Market analysis pointed out that Bitcoin fell below the $67,000 mark on Tuesday, which was related to this week's consumer price index report and the release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement on Wednesday. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to have little room for maneuver, as a sharp increase in jobs in May reduced expectations for the Fed's first rate cut in September. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said traders may be more conservative and may reduce risk exposure or use option strategies for hedging until the economic outlook becomes clearer. The implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen across the board, and despite this short-term uncertainty, the benchmark yields and call option tilts for all listed expiration dates remain high. (TheBlock)