Odaily星球日报讯 富达国际宏观和战略资产配置全球主管 Salman Ahmed 强调了他对今年没有降息的基本预测。这位分析师表示：“如果通胀在夏季继续取得进展，或者劳动力市场开始显示出一些压力迹象，我们确实认为今年降息的可能性正在上升。尽管如此，美国经济仍然具有弹性，今天发布的通胀数据受到汽车保险和机票分项的影响，这意味着启动降息的门槛仍然很高。”（金融界）

富达国际：美联储今年可能不会降息

Odaily Odaily News: Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, emphasized his basic forecast of no rate cuts this year. The analyst said: &quot;If inflation continues to make progress in the summer, or the labor market starts to show some signs of pressure, we do think the probability of a rate cut this year is rising. Nevertheless, the US economy remains resilient, and the inflation data released today was affected by the sub-items of auto insurance and air tickets, which means that the threshold for initiating a rate cut remains high.&quot; (Financial World)

Fidelity International: The Fed may not cut interest rates this year

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase economists said Wednesday's consumer inflation report and the Fed meeting increased the risk that the first rate cut would be in September, but their baseline forecast is still a rate cut in November. "Overall, although the median of the dot plot this year was slightly unexpected, our view on the Fed this afternoon is not much different," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a report, "We continue to believe that the first rate cut will be in November, and after this morning, the risk may be more inclined to September rather than December." (Jinshi)

JPMorgan: Expectations of the Fed's first rate cut in September are at risk

Odaily Odaily News Analyst Enda Curran said that in the context of the debate about the Fed's rate cut, a rate cut in July is more or less impossible, so the question is how today's CPI data will drive expectations of a rate cut in September. A set of hot data will definitely tend to support a rate cut, but equally, a lower overall data will also make people believe that the anti-inflation process is back on track. (Jinshi)

Analyst Enda Curran: A set of hot CPI data will tend to support a rate cut

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 38.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 56.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%. (Jinshi)