When will the consolidation end? Despite widespread pessimism and anger, the price of $BTC is only 15% below its highs. Famous trader Bob Loukas offers hope:
"The darkness before dawn, the re-accumulation in the middle of the cycle, and the emergence of the cycle high."
Here are his main points.
monthly chart
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in month 16, and the previous cycle took over two years. It is currently in its third month of sideways trading.
Historically, $BTC has paused after reaching all-time highs before reaching its final cycle peak. A longer period of sideways movement means the next uptick will be healthier and stronger.
Weekly chart
It has now been in a 14-week consolidation following the ETF news, down 12% from its highs. This kind of swing was expected after nearly doubling its gains from recent lows in January 2024.
Notably, the 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (price doubled).
Why isn't the market moving higher?
Bob points out several key factors:
- Whales sold off near $60,000 last cycle
- Concerns over potential monthly doubling top
- GBTC outflows (selling pressure)
- Transfer from on-chain assets to ETF assets
- ETF expectations are priced in early
- Q4 2023 rally driven by ETF hype
When will the shock end?
Stay patient, it has risen 3 times since September 2023 and needs to pull back to gain momentum. Similar to the post-doubling cycle low in Q1 2023, a broad base formed prior to the rally in Q4. The shock may last until July or August, when the bottom is reached.
When is the market likely to peak?
Based on the 4-year cycle, the peak may still be far away. Past cycles typically took 33-35 months from low to high. Following this model, October 2025 is possible (16-17 months away). The wide gap between the 10-month moving average and price suggests a pullback may be needed.
possible trends
We may see the next regional bottom soon, possibly at the end of the month. Bullish signs include higher lows and well above the January 2024 lows, showing strength in the market.
After this regional bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and recapture the highs.
The second possible scenario is continued choppy price action. This phase may last until September, forming a regional bottom but not breaking through the historical high.
The third possibility is another 30% decline, which has been typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, this is an important difference. Some people think it's impossible to get to around $55,000 with ETFs, and Bob strongly disagrees.
Trend convergence
All three trends converge around October, November, and December 2024, with the goal of breaking out of the all-time high and rising further. During this period, Bitcoin’s movements could significantly impact Altcoin ROI.
Bob’s buying strategy
Bob's last purchase was near the cycle low around $17,000. Now, he is focusing on potential buying opportunities for $BTC in the sub-$50,000 range. He suggested that those who are under-positioned consider adding to their positions during this shock.
Macroview Top for 2025
Bob expects the second phase of the cycle to be healthier. He believes that the market's high point will occur in the second half of the current cycle. But the peak time may be different, it may be in the second quarter of 2024 (the 30th month) or earlier, and it is unlikely to be the fourth quarter of 2025.
