For the first time in a long time, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded since the beginning of the week. As of 10 am on the 1st, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around the $63,500 level. This price range is up about 0.42% compared to a week ago.
Until last Friday (June 28), the mood was a bit more gloomy. As the overall buying momentum weakened in the cryptocurrency market, the price range hardly recovered, and with the news that the bond repayment of the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox would begin in early July, the price of Bitcoin temporarily fell to the $58,000 level. I also went there .
Although prices have recovered, it is still unclear whether this recovery will continue. So, let’s quickly look at the major news that came out last week and find out this week’s schedule.
Bitcoin price revives... Is this a ‘real rebound’?
On the 24th, last Monday, the price of Bitcoin began to decline rapidly. On the surface, it appears that the bad news of Mt. Gox bond repayment was the trigger, but it is also necessary to take into account that this bad news is quite old. Basically, the main reason appears to be that the buying momentum, which serves as the basic price stability, has fallen considerably.
In fact, the fund flow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which serves as the most important pillar of this year's rise, has shown a net outflow of more than $100 million for 7 consecutive business days since the 13th. Although the size was not small, the content was more pessimistic. Instead of the Grayscale Bitcoin Spot ETF (GBTC), which always accounted for the majority of selling volume , new ETFs such as Fidelity, Arc Invest, and Bitwise, which mainly took buying positions, showed net outflows. Because I participated in it .
Fortunately, after the 24th, although ETF fund flow was weak, it changed to a net inflow. Rather than saying that Bitcoin has experienced a new transition, it appears that the price of Bitcoin has fallen sufficiently over a short period of time. Jim Bianco, CEO of Bianco Research , announced on the 24th through his In other words, when the price of Bitcoin fell to $58,000, a kind of low-price buying began, centered on ETFs.
On the night of the 28th, Friday, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, a price indicator that acts as a key variable in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, was released. The level was in line with expectations, and although the downward trend in prices was evident, the price of Bitcoin showed a downward trend. In particular, the University of Michigan inflation expectation announced on this day was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.3%, but did not have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. On this day, net inflow from ETFs was calculated to have risen to around $73 million, but the price of Bitcoin itself fell by about 2%.
In other words, it still seems to be an ambiguous time to discuss whether it is rising, falling, or recovering momentum. However, it is also necessary to consider that the selling price of Bitcoin miners is also decreasing at the same time. Some have analyzed that the Bitcoin price will begin rallying again starting in the third quarter .
“ETH spot ETF inflows $5 billion in 5 months”
The biggest issue in July will be the Ethereum spot ETF, which is awaiting remaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Among them, when will it be approved is the most pressing concern . Bloomberg Intelligence analysts had pointed to July 2 as the most likely date, but suddenly announced through Yes. Citing high-ranking officials from asset management companies that applied for approval for the Ethereum ETF, Reuters reported that approval would be given as early as July 4th or as late as July 11th . Considering various details, the current expected date of around the 11th seems reasonable.
The next area of greatest interest is whether it will be able to gain as much upward momentum as the price of Bitcoin when it is released to the market after approval. In response, asset management company Bitwise predicted that an inflow of $15 billion would occur over 18 months . Galaxy Digital, an asset management company specializing in crypto, also expected about $5 billion in six months .
The reason two different asset managers came up with similar forecasts was because they made calculations under the assumption that funds would flow in proportion to the actual market capitalization of the ETF's underlying assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum (approximately 3:1). The Bitcoin spot ETF, launched in January of this year, has seen an inflow of $15 billion worth of funds within five months of launch.
The prevailing view is that the actual price trend will be somewhat weak immediately after listing. Looking at past Bitcoin spot ETF cases, the price rose briefly on the day of launch, but a large amount of selling volume came from GBTC, which was converted from an investment trust, and the price fell for nearly 20 days.
As a result, some argue that Solana, which is considered the next spot ETF, is more powerful from an actual investment perspective. In fact, Van Eck and 21 Shares submitted Solana spot ETF approval application forms on the 28th and 29th, respectively. As some institutional investors agreed, the price of Solana rose by nearly 10% on this day, but many in the industry were of the opinion that the approval schedule could not be guaranteed.
Focus on employment indicators... Mt Gox quantities are also available.
US macroeconomic indicators continue this week. On the 2nd, there will be the U.S. Department of Labor's Job Openings and Job Turnover Report (JOLTs), on the 3rd there will be Auto Data Processing (ADP) non-farm employment data, and on the 5th there will be the non-farm employment index and U.S. unemployment rate. However, unlike in the past, if employment is bad, there is a possibility that risky asset prices will not rise even though the probability of an interest rate cut increases.
In addition to the indicator announcement, things to pay attention to are Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech starting at 10:30 pm on the 2nd and the May Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes to be released on the 4th. As the market's attention is focused on whether the Federal Reserve will make its first interest rate cut in September of this year, the key point to watch will be whether related clues emerge.
Another thing to note is that in connection with the US Independence Day this week, the stock market will close early on the 3rd and on the 4th. If the stock market is closed, of course there will be no Bitcoin spot ETF trading. This week, we may also see a picture driving Bitcoin prices from regions other than the United States.
Additionally, the distribution of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to Mt. Gox creditors could begin as early as this week. We must not forget the possibility of a large sale, as the amount returned to individual creditors is estimated to be approximately 65,000 units.
