The market originally expected Bitcoin to rebound in July, but the market's optimism was poured cold water on yesterday. BTC reached US$59,570 around 18:00 yesterday (3rd) evening. Although it once returned to above US$60,000, it fell further after 5:00 this morning (4th), with the lowest price at US$59,375.
At the moment of writing, it has returned to US$60,327, down 3.12% in the past 24 hours.
The entire network liquidated US$220 million in the past 24 hours
Amid repeated market washouts in Bitcoin, according to Coinglass data , in the past 24 hours, the entire cryptocurrency network liquidated more than $220 million (longs accounted for $200 million), and nearly 90,000 people were liquidated.
Why did the market crash?
In response to the pin falling below the 60,000 mark yesterday evening, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards posted an article on Gox has begun paying off creditors in Bitcoin, triggering market selling:
This chart will blow your mind and give you a slap in the face.
The chart shows a massive amount of Bitcoin being moved on-chain, 10 times higher than the previous high at $9 billion. But who is the transferor?
Mt. Gox. It seems they have started repayment.
Mt. Gox expects to begin repayments in July
Mt. Gox, once the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, was attacked by hackers in 2014 and 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen. Now, after 10 years of bankruptcy litigation and several delays, compensation is finally underway. It is expected that Mt. Gox will pay 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH to creditors before October this year.
Analysts believe impact of Mt. Gox selling pressure is controllable
However, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn commented on the X platform at the end of June that he believed that the eventual selling pressure on Bitcoin triggered by Mt. Gox would be less than expected. He explained that since nearly 75% of creditors choose Early payout (subject to accepting a 10% impairment), there will currently only be about 95,000 Bitcoins used for early payment of compensation (the remaining BTC will take longer to be paid out) Payment):
- About 20,000 of these tokens belong to the claims fund
- 10,000 tokens belong to Bitcoinica BK
- There are about 65,000 coins left that are owed to individual creditors.
And he predicts that individual creditors will insist on holding Bitcoin more than the market expects:
- Creditors are mainly long-term Bitcoin holders. They are technology-savvy early adopters.
- Individual creditors have rejected attractive offers from claims funds over the years, suggesting they want their Bitcoin back rather than compensation denominated in U.S. dollars.
- The capital gains tax implications of a sale can be significant. Even though only 15% of physical claims have been recovered as prices have increased, claim holders have gained 140x (in USD) on the Bitcoin they recovered since the bankruptcy.
Therefore, in summary, he believes that the selling pressure on Bitcoin will not be greater than investors imagine. But BCH may have a more serious decline due to its small liquidity.
However, according to data from the on-chain data monitoring platform Arkham, the Bitcoins in Mt. Gox’s wallet have not yet moved, so it remains to be seen whether Mt. Gox has initiated repayment as Edwards said. (However, it does not rule out the possibility that the data on the chain has not been updated yet)
