Brothers, a new week has begun. At around 2 a.m. last night, BTC fell to 65,700, and then immediately rebounded. What do you think of the market this week?
The general trend this week remains bullish. This week will be a volatile market, affected by Mentougou and Ethereum spot ETF. However, I also said last week that Mentougou and ETF will form a small hedge, and the overall benefits outweigh the negatives. I also said in last week’s analysis that there are many victims of Mentougou, so there are many "sellers", so the ideas will be different. Some "sellers" will ship immediately, and some sellers will continue to hold by relying on ETFs or because they are optimistic about the future trend.
Therefore, the general upper pressure level this week is around 72,000, and the lower support is around 65,000. The upper pressure level of Ethereum this week is around 3,950, and the lower support level is around 3,300.
The highlight of this week is that ETF has the greatest impact on the market, so just focus on it. As for other news, I have also taken a rough look at it, and the impact is relatively not that big, so just wait patiently for the Ethereum news.
A Bitcoin conference will be held on July 25th. Trump will attend and give a speech on the last day. Trump will most likely shill for BTC, saying that he wants to make the United States a leading country in the cryptocurrency industry and support everyone's right to self-manage their wallets, etc. In principle, this is good for the crypto.
There are also two major economic data releases, both of which are higher than expected, negative, and lower than expected, positive.
PMI data released at 21:45 on Wednesday
PCE data released at 20:30 on Friday
Currently, a rate cut in September has become the mainstream view in the market. If the data is negative, both the US stock market and BTC will be hit, but judging from the data, a rate cut in September seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Musk is making trouble again. His X avatar suddenly changed to a laser eye. As we all know, laser eyes are very famous in the crypto circle. In 2021, in order to hope that Bitcoin would reach $100,000, some bigwigs in the crypto circle changed to laser eyes, and this laser eye has been circulated to this day. The point is that the laser eyes that Musk changed to were made by the dmaga community, so this meme increased by 50x+ overnight, and its current market value is less than 50 million US dollars.
Bitcoin re-entered the upward mode over the weekend, reaching a high of 68,000, and is somewhat tempted to re-challenge the 70,000 mark. However, I would like to remind you that if this position cannot be broken through and stabilized at 72,000 in one go, it is very likely to encounter resistance and retreat, because the 70,000-72,000 trend is a very strong resistance area, which has been formed from March of this year to the present, and is currently about to be challenged. If the market cannot break through 72,000+ in one go, then there is a high probability that it will pull back. When Bitcoin pulls back, the copycat will also be unavoidable, so I would like to remind you to pay attention to the risks here.
So the next strategy is to observe whether the market can rise to 70,000+ in one go and break through 72,000 to reach a new high after stabilizing. If it is not such a trend, then it will most likely retreat and fluctuate for adjustment. If it chooses to fluctuate for adjustment, then the support level below is around 65,000.
There are two more buying opportunities in the near term:
First, there is the opportunity to buy after the pullback wave. I personally estimate that the pullback should not be lower than 6.3w. There has been an increase in trading volume here, and there has also been a 4-5 day sideways turnover. So there is a high probability that there will be support here. Secondly, wait for BTC to break through 7.2w before buying, especially if it pulls back first and then breaks through, it will be a more ideal buying opportunity.
As for the price around 68,000 yuan, it is neither going up nor down, and being stuck in the middle is not a good buying point.
Since July 8, ETFs have maintained net inflows, and the number of stablecoins has also begun to rise. These are good signs. Judging from the funding rate, the short-term bullish sentiment is slightly strong. Therefore, the above view is still true. From a trading perspective, the price around 68,000 yuan is neither up nor down, and it is not a good time. You can wait for a correction of more than 5% within a week, or wait for a breakthrough of 72,000 yuan to buy or increase your position.
The second half of this bull market will be very important!
From the perspective of wealth satisfaction, this may be the last amplitude experience card. There will be more and more projects in the future, and homogeneity will become more and more serious. Funds will choose stronger and more certain projects, and give corresponding continuity in different bull and bear cycles, so there will be opportunities to make money in the future, but the difficulty will become greater. The difficulty lies in cognitive selectivity, understanding of human nature, changes in financial models, policy factors, etc. Think about our journey from the grassroots small asset cycle to the mainstream financial era, and the help of different bourgeoisie. The second half of this round is a huge peak. In 2013 and 2017, we couldn't believe and imagine that mainstream institutions and national presidents would come to shill and bring goods. Cherish the future market. If you get off the bus, you may miss the mark you left in an era!
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