Biden drops out of race to support Harris. Can the new candidate defeat Trump?

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Author: Katanga Johnson, Bloomberg; Translated by: Baishui, Jinse Finance

U.S. President Joe Biden has abandoned his bid for re-election, succumbing to relentless pressure from Democrats over fears he is too weak to defeat Donald Trump, throwing new confusion into the 2024 race.

Biden, 81, said he would serve out his term but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, to succeed him as the Democratic nominee, praising her as a "phenomenal partner." Harris accepted the president's endorsement and said in a statement Sunday afternoon, "My goal is to win this nomination."

Biden's historic exit effectively brings his five-decade career in Washington to an end and cedes the stage to a new generation of Democratic leaders.

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President Joe Biden said in a post on X that he would not seek re-election. Photographer: Mustafa Hussain/Bloomberg

The decision kicks off a three-month sprint to the November election, with Democrats facing the task of rallying behind a new candidate in the weeks before their nominating conventions and quickly catching up to front-runner Trump , who was assassinated last weekend.

"While I have always wanted to run for reelection, I have determined that it is in the best interests of the party and the country that I step down and focus on the remainder of my term as president," Biden said in a statement released on X.com.

"It's time to unite and defeat Trump. Let's do it together," Biden said in a subsequent post, adding that he "fully supports and endorses" Harris.

There are early signs that senior Democrats are rallying behind Harris as the nominee, with former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, liberal stalwart Senator Elizabeth Warren and several swing-state lawmakers backing the vice president.

“I will do everything I can to unite the Democratic Party — to unite our country — to defeat Donald Trump,” Harris said.

Harris' team has begun contacting representatives

Harris' team has begun contacting delegates to gain support ahead of the virtual roll call, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions. The formal roll call to nominate candidates is scheduled for August. At a full Biden team meeting on Sunday, campaign chairwoman Jennifer O'Malley Dillon said staffers still have work to do to help Harris get elected, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Former President Barack Obama issued a statement praising Biden but plans not to endorse either candidate until someone is nominated, similar to his approach in previous elections, according to a person familiar with the matter.

It was unclear until Sunday whether Biden would succumb to pressure from allies - at one point he said only "God Almighty" could remove him from office.

Biden spoke to Harris multiple times on Sunday but did not inform his senior staff of his decision until minutes before the announcement on social media, according to people familiar with the matter. The message to the presidential campaign Saturday night was that the president was moving full steam ahead with his reelection bid. Most White House and campaign staff were unaware of his choice until after the X post, one of the people said.

O'Malley Dillon called Sunday a day of anger and sadness given Biden's decision but expressed optimism for the vice president, according to a person familiar with the matter.

As the first president in more than half a century not to seek re-election, Biden has previously refused to give up the race in favor of younger candidates.

A disastrous performance in the June 27 debate fueled doubts among Democratic leaders, donors and voters about his ability to defeat Trump and win re-election. Biden’s campaign suffered another blow last week when he tested positive for Covid-19, forcing him to withdraw from the race just as he was trying to regain momentum.

The president's statement sparked calls from Republicans for his resignation.

"If Joe Biden is unfit to run for president, he is unfit to serve as president. He must resign immediately. November 5 is not too late," House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a statement.

Biden's exit from the race comes as polls show Trump's lead widening, especially after the Republican nominee was grazed by an assassin's bullet at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. Trump said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that he believed Harris would be easier to beat and said Biden would be remembered as "the worst president in the history of our country."

Trump solidified his grip on the Republican Party at last week's convention in Milwaukee, naming Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, a 39-year-old populist activist, as his running mate.

Democratic Anxiety

Democrats are increasingly concerned that Biden's weakened position will allow Republicans to control Congress and the White House. About 36 Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for the president to step down.

From foreign capital to financial markets, it seems increasingly likely that Trump will win in November, which would bring policy shifts, from sweeping import tariffs and immigration restrictions to the withdrawal of treaty commitments, that could alter the global economy and the U.S. role in the world. In prediction markets, Trump appeared to be the clear favorite after his victory was announced.

Investors have already begun making “Trump trades,” betting on more trade barriers and potentially higher inflation.

Democrats are hoping Harris — the first female, Black and Asian vice president popular with the party’s primary voters — can revive their chances in November.

Some polls in recent weeks have shown her doing better against Trump than against the president. After a shaky start to her term, she has improved among voters in swing states, with Republicans seizing on her gaffes and her unpopularity with voters to attack Biden's reelection hopes.

Still, she remains untested in the race, having not been tested in the 2020 presidential race, in which she dropped out before the first vote was cast. Harris and the Democratic Party face turbulence if other heavyweights decide to seek the nomination.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker were seen as potential challengers in 2024 before unseating Biden. Whitmer has no intention of challenging Harris for the nomination, according to a person familiar with the matter. Newsom endorsed Harris in an article on X, saying no one is "better suited to prosecute Donald Trump's dark vision and lead our country in a healthier direction" than the vice president.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has also endorsed Harris. However, other Democrats are still likely to run for the party's nomination in November.

Legal challenges

Republicans have hinted in recent days that they may launch legal challenges to block the replacement candidate from running. House Speaker Johnson said at a Politico event during the Republican convention that it would take a "small army of lawyers" to deal with the legal consequences of any changes to the Democratic slate.

"I think they're running into legal hurdles in some states, and I expect they're going to have lawsuits there, and they're going to have to work that out," he added in an interview with CNN on Sunday. "They're running into real problems."

The Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative think tank, had said before the announcement that it was planning a possible legal challenge.

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Joe Biden endorses his running mate, Kamala Harris. Photographer: Hannah Beier/Bloomberg

Asked at a CNN-Politico event during the convention how the campaign would respond, Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, was more cautious, noting that Democrats’ attempt to remove a nominee from the ballot in the 2014 U.S. Senate election in Kansas was met with a legal challenge.

“We certainly won’t reveal what we’re going to do,” he said.

Historic exit

The last time a U.S. president declined to run for reelection was in 1968. Fellow Democrat Lyndon Johnson, weakened by divisions over the Vietnam War and facing a strong primary challenger, chose not to run. But his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, ultimately lost to Richard Nixon, which could be a worrying omen for Democrats this year.

For Biden, the decision to drop out of the race is a stunning setback at the end of a half-century of public service that propelled him to the pinnacle of power and allowed him to boast that he was the only candidate who could defeat Trump.

But stumbling during the debate, where he appeared to lose his train of thought several times, the oldest president in U.S. history was unable to quell concerns about his health and mental acuity. Biden stepped up his interviews and public appearances in the weeks that followed, but new gaffes only served to underscore the alarm. Major donors paused their support.

Biden’s approval ratings were at record lows before the debate, exacerbated by Americans’ dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. High housing and food prices have hit American families hard, overshadowing White House efforts to tout solid job growth and new investments in infrastructure and domestic manufacturing — two core elements of the president’s economic agenda.

Biden has tried to portray the race as one about the fate of American democracy, but the effort has struggled to win over voters as efforts to prosecute Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election have been bogged down in legal delays and reversals. The Democratic campaign has also been complicated by a wave of public sympathy for Trump after the assassination attempt.

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