Written by: Shang2046
The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
After recording gains for three consecutive weeks, BTC is recovering its lost ground. Under the influence of the political and economic tides in the United States, the real bull market of the fourth halving may be starting.
Market Week
After two consecutive weeks of strong rebound, BTC went through a fierce battle between long and short in the third week, and finally rose slightly by $84, completing three consecutive weeks of rise, with an amplitude of 8.81%. Against the backdrop of the supply cloud of more than 100,000 coins in Mt.Gox and the adjustment of US stocks, the market showed the confidence that a bull market should have. At present, BTC is expected to break through the pressure level of $70,000 in the short term and further approach the historical high. The direct driving force of the rise is still related to the continuous inflow of funds, but it has slowed down slightly compared with the previous two weeks. The biggest event of crypto assets this week was the attendance of Republican presidential candidate Trump at the US Bitcoin Conference on July 28. At this grand event attended by hundreds of thousands of people, Trump delivered a speech saying that after being elected, he would include BTC in the US national reserves, promote the power supply of BTC mining in the United States, and establish the first presidential advisory committee on cryptocurrency in human history. There is no doubt that Trump is bringing BTC into a wider global focus and linking national reserves with cryptocurrencies for the first time. In response, Hong Kong legislators and representatives of related industries also called on the Hong Kong government to include BTC in strategic reserves. On the other hand, expectations of US interest rate cuts have become clearer. Affected by the interest rate cut tide, the Nasdaq has seen a significant adjustment in the funds of technology stocks, which have been declining for two consecutive weeks, and last week it was a rare drop of more than 2%. It must be emphasized again that BTC, which has a strong negative correlation with the US dollar in history, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the interest rate cut tide.
Federal Reserve and economic data
U.S. consumer confidence fell to an eight-month low in July, which strengthened expectations for rate cuts and the possibility of a mild economic recession. After the CPI inflection point was confirmed and expectations for rate cuts became clear, the market began to price in a recession. The Nasdaq fell 2.08% this week, falling for two consecutive weeks. Tesla fell as much as 20% after its performance declined, which hit the high growth expectations of technology stocks. The Russell 2000 index, which represents small companies, rose 1.74% this week, achieving three consecutive weeks of gains. Institutions in the U.S. stock market continue to shift from technology stocks to small-cap stocks because small-cap stocks have lower valuations, and technology stocks, especially the 7 Princess, have reflected higher expectations.
Funding
The inflow of USD stablecoins continued, with an inflow of 558 million for the whole week. USDT and USDC inflows were at the same frequency, with inflows of 455 million and 103 million respectively, lower than last week's 1.594 billion. In July, a total of 3.5 billion US dollars flowed into stablecoins. BTC ETF channel inflows of 556 million, which is still a large scale, and the cumulative inflow this month has reached 3.076 billion US dollars. Adding the two together, the cumulative net inflow in July was more than 6.5 billion US dollars, which completely reversed the decline in funds in May and June.
Chip Supply
According to BTC on-chain data, long-term investors increased their holdings by 76,100 this week, while short-term investors reduced their holdings by 81,100. As long-term investors have returned to increasing their holdings, while short-term investors have only made less than 4% of their on-chain profits, there is no excessive selling pressure in the market, which is conducive to the continued rise of BTC prices. The net inflow of BTC to exchanges is about 5,000, a sharp drop from more than 30,000 last week, returning to the average range of the past year. Another good news is that the BTC miner group has withstood the pressure peak, and the net accumulation scale of miners this week reached 7,000. On July 20, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network hit a record high, and the 7-day average computing power also approached the historical high. It can be said that the massacre of miners has ended. By eliminating old computing power and replacing it with new computing power, the peak of miner pressure has passed, and the Bitcoin network has returned to the trend of computing power growth. The recovery of computing power indicates that miners, an important community member, are firmly optimistic about the future market, and it has also become a material support for BTC to hit a record high in the future market.
BTC on-chain data
Newly added addresses and active addresses maintained a mild recovery, and the 30-day moving average continued to move upward slowly from last week. Transactions were the same as last week, and Gas revenue remained sluggish.
Ecological analysis
The comprehensive data of Ethereum ecosystem has started to turn upward. New addresses and active addresses have just started to rebound, and Transactions are consolidating at a high level. Solana's new addresses, active addresses, and Transactions continue to expand, all setting new historical highs.
EMC BTC Cycle indicator
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.5, a bullish signal awaiting further recovery interruption.
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