Current market analysis and future prospects
1. Market review and comparison
2020 Bull Market Review:
Time node: The market accelerated in August 2020, and the market officially broke through in September, rising from US$9,800 to US$66,000.
Pattern comparison: The current market situation seems to be advanced by one month, and it is expected that August 2024 may be the beginning of the acceleration phase, similar to the pattern in 2020.
July market summary:
BTC trend: Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from a low of 53,000 to 70,000. Although the market fell in early July, the global attention has refocused after the Trump incident, and the crypto market has returned to a bull market.
Future Outlook: August may be the last window for this round of bull market. It is expected that August will enter the acceleration phase, the bull market will last for more than 6 months, and BTC may reach the target of $150,000 in February-March next year.
2. ETF market dynamics
Ethereum ETF:
Fund inflow: Ethereum ETF has recently seen a net inflow of $33.7 million. Grayscale ETHE's dumping volume has been reduced to $120 million, and institutions such as BlackRock have also seen fund inflows.
Market reaction: If the massive sell-off of Grayscale ETHE subsides this week, it is expected that the positive effects of Ethereum ETF will emerge in the next two weeks, and ETH's trend may become stronger.
Bitcoin ETF:
Fund outflow: Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $18 million, with GBTC being the main source of outflow. Nevertheless, as the main force in replenishing positions, BlackRock's inflow and outflow were roughly equal, and the impact was relatively limited.
Market stability: Despite the outflows, Bitcoin’s trend has been relatively stable.
3. Operational suggestions
Strategy for August:
Opportunity to get on board: August is expected to be the acceleration stage of this bull market. It is recommended to consider entering the market in early August. Missing this opportunity may affect the bull market gains.
Risk control: Although the market outlook is promising, risk control should be maintained and reasonable stop loss and take profit points should be set.
Summarize
The current market is similar to the bull market pattern in 2020. It is expected to enter an acceleration phase in August and the bull market will continue until February-March next year. Ethereum ETF has seen good capital inflows recently, which may bring short-term benefits; although Bitcoin ETF has seen capital outflows, the impact is relatively limited. Next, continue to pay attention to market dynamics and formulate reasonable investment strategies to seize bull market opportunities.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.
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