Odaily星球日报讯 机构预测模型显示，美国劳动力市场的扩张速度可能会放缓，这可能暗示着整体冷却趋势。但如果今天的非农就业报告好于预期，对硬着陆的担忧可能会消退，市场上突然出现的风险厌恶情绪也会缓解。 预测模型显示，美国 7 月份非农就业人数将从 6 月份的 20.6 万人温和增长至 23.1 万人，高于普遍预期的 17.5 万人。失业率预计将保持在 4.1%不变。美联储预计将在未来几个月开始降息，今年大幅降息的可能性越来越大。尽管如此，美国经济已显示出减速的迹象，但并未出现重大中断。如果这种情况继续下去，股市的抛售可能有些过度，而对美联储将大幅降息的押注可能会略有放松。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 机构预测模型显示，美国劳动力市场的扩张速度可能会放缓，这可能暗示着整体冷却趋势。但如果今天的非农就业报告好于预期，对硬着陆的担忧可能会消退，市场上突然出现的风险厌恶情绪也会缓解。预测模型显示，美国 7 月份非农就业人数将从 6 月份的 20.6 万人温和增长至 23.1 万人，高于普遍预期的 17.5 万人。失业率预计将保持在 4.1%不变。美联储预计将在未来几个月开始降息，今年大幅降息的可能性越来越大。尽管如此，美国经济已显示出减速的迹象，但并未出现重大中断。如果这种情况继续下去，股市的抛售可能有些过度，而对美联储将大幅降息的押注可能会略有放松。（金十）

机构分析：美联储大幅降息押注或将缓和

According to the Odaily Planet Daily report, institutional forecast models show that the expansion pace of the US labor market may slow down, which could imply an overall cooling trend. However, if today's non-farm employment report exceeds expectations, concerns about a hard landing may recede, and the sudden risk aversion sentiment in the market may also ease.

The forecast model shows that the US non-farm employment in July will grow moderately from 206,000 in June to 231,000, higher than the widely expected 175,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the coming months, and the possibility of a significant rate cut this year is increasing. Nevertheless, the US economy has shown signs of slowing down, but there has been no major disruption. If this situation continues, the sell-off in the stock market may be somewhat excessive, and the bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut may be slightly relaxed. (Gold Ten)

Odaily Odaily News Agency forecast models show that the pace of expansion of the US labor market may slow, which may suggest an overall cooling trend. But if today&#39;s non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, concerns about a hard landing may subside, and the sudden risk aversion in the market will ease. The forecast model shows that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States will increase modestly to 231,000 in July from 206,000 in June, higher than the general expectation of 175,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the coming months, and the possibility of a sharp rate cut this year is increasing. Despite this, the US economy has shown signs of slowing down, but there have been no major interruptions. If this continues, the stock market sell-off may be a bit excessive, and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply may be slightly relaxed. (Jinshi)

Institutional analysis: The Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cut may help ease the situation.

Source: Zhou Ziheng

Although the Federal Reserve recognizes that the US economy is "cooling down," the unemployment rate is starting to rise, and economic activity is weakening, the Federal Reserve did not lower the policy interest rate from the current high level of 5.25-5.5% at its meeting at the end of July.

The problem facing the Federal Reserve, as always, is to strike a balance between maintaining high borrowing costs to curb inflation and high borrowing costs leading to reduced household spending, reduced corporate investment, and reduced employment.

Like other central banks in major economies, the Federal Reserve has set a target inflation rate of 2% per year (which is meaningless); the difference is that the Federal Reserve has a "dual mandate," which is to strive to maintain full employment while keeping inflation low.

The Federal Reserve's defeat is already decided?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Longing Asset Management analyst Jake Dollarhide stated: The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in August, which is the most conservative secret on this planet. The Federal Reserve will announce a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut in September, but I will not be surprised if this has already been reflected in the stock market. We may see a significant market decline on the day the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September. (Gold Ten)

Analysts: US stocks may plummet if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September.

Tonight, the United States will release the latest non-farm payroll report. The market believes that the United States is expected to add 175,000 non-farm jobs in July, and the hourly wage rate will record a 0.3% increase. Some investment bank analysts believe that the non-farm employment report performance tonight may be lower than expected.

Analysts also expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, which is the level after three consecutive months of increase. Since hitting a 50-year low of 3.4% in April 2023, the unemployment rate has risen, leading to concerns about an economic recession. Economists believe these concerns are misleading, pointing out that layoffs are still at historical lows.

The market believes that the U.S. unemployment rate in July will remain at 4.1% and fall short of expectations, with non-farm payrolls possibly adding 175,000 new jobs.