Odaily星球日报讯 美国银行的一项调查显示，在市场准备迎接美联储降息之际，相信美元将走软的投资者比例在过去一个月里几乎增加了两倍。在该行的月度情绪调查中，约 23%的受访者表示，他们最确信的交易是做空美元，这是今年以来的最高比例，高于 7 月份的 8%。美元今年的表现优于多数 G10 货币，但在过去一个月，由于数据显示美国经济正在失去动力，促使交易员押注美国将大幅降息，美元的涨势已宣告失败。（金十）

美联储降息临近之际美国银行客户转向抛售美元

Odaily Odaily News: A Bank of America survey shows that the proportion of investors who believe that the dollar will weaken has almost tripled in the past month as the market prepares for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the bank&#39;s monthly sentiment survey, about 23% of respondents said that their most confident trade was to short the dollar, which is the highest proportion so far this year, up from 8% in July. The dollar has outperformed most G10 currencies this year, but in the past month, the dollar&#39;s rally has failed as data showed that the US economy is losing momentum, prompting traders to bet on a sharp cut in US interest rates. (Jinshi)

As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut approaches, US bank customers are turning to sell the US dollar.

According to the majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve is expected to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This is in contrast to the calls from some major Wall Street banks that the next meeting will see a significant rate cut. Nearly four-fifths of the survey participants expect the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate to a range of 5% to 5.25% at the September 17-18 meeting, while most other economists expect a larger rate cut. The median forecast of economists also shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve making a rare adjustment to interest rates before the scheduled meeting is only 10%.

The consensus among economists is that the Federal Reserve will choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meetings in September, November, and December of this year, as well as the first quarter of 2025. It is reported that these 51 economists were surveyed from August 6 to 8, when global markets were in a selling frenzy.

Investigation: About 80% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

Table of Contents
- Bar kin: Time to Evaluate Decisions
- Schmid: Not Ready to Support Rate Cut Yet
- Market Estimates 56.5% Chance of 2 Rate Cuts in September
The US experienced an unexpected surge in unemployment last week, exacerbating market concerns about an impending economic recession, which led to a sharp short-term decline in US stocks and even dragged down global investment markets. Although the current panic has somewhat subsided, the market has already begun to digest a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut path.
The futures market indicates that investors expect about a 1% rate cut this year, and some economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 2 notches in September.

Federal Reserve officials unanimously stated: Inflation has cooled significantly, and there is ample time to make decisions...The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 2 points in September is over 50%.

Odaily reports that JPMorgan Chase now believes the likelihood of the US economy falling into recession by the end of this year is 35%, higher than the 25% at the beginning of last month. In a report to clients on Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase economists led by Bruce KAS wrote that US news "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with preliminary signs of layoffs." The team maintained a 45% chance of the economy falling into recession in the second half of 2025. "We have moderately increased our assessment of the risk of economic recession, while our adjustment to the interest rate outlook is greater," KAS and his colleagues wrote. JPMorgan Chase now believes there is only a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates high in the long term, compared to a 50% chance predicted just two months ago. As inflationary pressures in the US decline, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.