The situation in the Middle East has eased a little, but we have to pay attention to the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine again. Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone directly hit Moscow. The market is worried that the war will escalate further, and Bitcoin has once again fallen below $60,000.
Last week's weekly closing was pretty good, basically telling the market that 50,000 is the strongest support position for this round of retracement. However, it will take time to really stabilize and get out of the upward trend. It will take time for the market to recover after a sharp drop.
After falling below 59,000 at the 4-hour level, it entered a volatile mode again, and the market will repeatedly probe and test the support position.
Judging from the current weekly trend, the overall weekly trend will continue to fluctuate sideways, while the overall weekly trend of Ethereum will be relatively weak. The overall weekly trend of the market will be between 54,000 and 63,000, the overall weekly trend of Ethereum will be between 2,250 and 2,750, and the overall weekly trend of Sol will be between 120 and 165. This week's news focuses on the release of CPI data, followed by Musk's dialogue with Trump. If you are interested, you can pay attention to it.
Three major events this week:
1. Musk vs. Trump: The peak dialogue on August 13!
The interview between Musk and Trump will definitely stir up the market. Can the comments of the two market manipulators ignite the enthusiasm of the crypto again? The market sentiment has begun to stir, which should not be underestimated!
2. At 8:30 pm on Tuesday, the US PPI data for July was released!
The Producer Price Index (PPI) data directly affects market expectations. If it is higher than expected, it may be bad news; but if it is lower than expected, it is a super positive, so be prepared for volatility!
3. At 8:30 pm on Wednesday, the US July CPI data will be released!
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator for measuring inflation. The Fed's interest rate cut plan may be completely changed at this moment. If the CPI data is higher than expected, the market may usher in a cold snap; otherwise, the good news will explode instantly!
Key point: PPI and CPI data will determine the pace of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and directly affect the market trend. Be prepared, the market is about to change!
If anyone has experienced the last round of bull market, let's recall the situation at that time. After the outbreak of COVID-19, BTC continued to rise for more than 400 days, and the overall growth of Altcoin was not large during this period. Then, in May 2021, BTC began to go sideways, and after testing the highs several times, it began to plummet. As shown in the figure below.
The script of this round of bull market is basically the same. Since March 2023, BTC has been in an overall upward trend until March 2024, which is nearly 400 days. Then BTC began to consolidate and began to test highs. After several failures, BTC began to plummet, and even fell to around US$49,000 a few days ago (August 5).
If the market continues to follow this scenario, BTC may continue to consolidate in the current range for a period of time, and it is not ruled out that it will continue to fall, and then there will be a sharp and rapid rise and reach a new ATH. At the same time, some Altcoin will also take over and usher in the last wave of skyrocketing opportunities.
As for when the big bull market will come, I don’t know, maybe it will start next month (September-November), maybe in the first half of next year (March-June), maybe in the second half of next year…
Therefore, in the next 300 days or so, if we really have the opportunity to usher in a short-term bull market, then you must remember to make necessary profit-taking, because the narrative altcoins you hold may leave you with fewer opportunities (time) to exit, and the increase is not expected to be that large. If you still hold the mentality that the Altcoin you hold will increase 100 times in the future, then your risk factor will become very high.
As for me, I will continue with my previous plan:
Mainstream BTC
When BTC reaches around $100,000, I will sell it in batches. If BTC does not reach around $100,000 in this bull market, I will continue to hold it. At most, I will hold it for a few more years until the next bull market.
Altcoin
As for the altcoins we hold, we will consider liquidating our positions in batches when the total market value of Altcoin reaches about $2 trillion. If it doesn’t reach that, it doesn’t matter, because some of the altcoins we newly bought and held in this cycle have already been reduced, and although there is no profit (only floating profit), there is no pressure to hold positions.
Create a high-quality circle
Spot mainly
I will share some content: as shown below:
Tentative 50 people
The overall position is ≥ 10,000u. If you want to join, scan the QR code below!
(A few hundred or a few thousand is too small to operate. If you don’t have it, you can also send a private message. You can also join after passing the screening.) Purpose: To become bigger and stronger, and create a brilliant bull market turnaround!
This is the end of the article. I will do a more detailed analysis in the communication group. If you want to join my circle, please contact me directly through the WeChat below!
Want to join the VIP spot group! Welcome to chat with me! Welcome to join us to grasp the next hot spot and maximize the return on investment!
