Weekly Review
This week, from August 12 to August 19, the highest price of BTC was around $61,800 and the lowest was close to $56,078, with a fluctuation range of about 9.34%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 59,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 59000-63000, about 1.38 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000, about 1.16 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
Important news
Economic News
1. The U.S. retail sales monthly rate in July was 1%, higher than the expected value of 0.3% and higher than the previous value of 0.00%.
2. The number of initial jobless claims for the week was 227,000, lower than the expected value of 235,000 and lower than the previous value of 233,000.
3. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales in July was 1%, the highest increase since January 2023, easing financial market concerns about a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.
4. Economist Peter Cardillo said that retail sales were much stronger than expected, reducing people's concerns about a recession, which is good news for the stock market. Analysts believe that the economic soft landing scenario is good and is a positive catalyst for the stock market, which may rise further.
5. The futures market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 74.5% from 65% on Wednesday night, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut to about 23.5%.
6. Fed's Musallem: No economic recession is expected in the next few quarters; US GDP growth is expected to be between 1.5% and 2% in the second half of this year; the time for interest rate changes may be coming soon.
Encrypted ecological news
1. Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji said the company will not copy its competitor (BlackRock) and will not launch a cryptocurrency ETF.
2. According to ai_9684xtpa data, since August this year, Lido ETH staking has experienced net outflows for 12 consecutive days, with a total outflow of 74,304 ETH (about 194 million US dollars). Among them, JumpTrading redeemed 62,609 ETH from Lido.
3. According to Lookonchain data, a total of $955 million in stablecoins have flowed from Tether to Kraken since August 5.
4. Cynthia LoBessette, head of Fidelity Digital Asset Management, said that although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet approved an ETF that can pledge ETH, this situation may change in the future because staking is an important part of ETH investment opportunities.
5. It believes that it is more a matter of time rather than whether it will happen, and Fidelity has had constructive dialogues with SEC staff to discuss the possibility of bringing a pledged ETH ETF to market.
6. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at the Crypto4Harris Town Hall Meeting that the United States should find a balance for cryptocurrencies between promoting innovation and providing common-sense guardrails, with the goal of having a bill passed by the Senate and enacted into law by the end of this year.
7. According to Bitwise statistics, based on the 13F position reports submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 44% of asset management companies increased their BTC ETF positions in the second quarter, 22% remained unchanged, 21% of institutions reduced their positions, and 13% liquidated their positions.
8. Approximately 66% of institutional investors hold or increase their BTC holdings through BTC spot ETFs (Form 13F is a quarterly regulatory report that all institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management must submit).
9. According to the 13F report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley purchased a total of more than $600 million in BTC spot ETFs in the second quarter, of which Goldman Sachs spent about $418 million on BTC spot ETFs, most of which were BlackRock IBIT (worth about $238 million).
10. Morgan Stanley holds BlackRock IBIT worth $188 million, making it one of the top five holders of the ETF, with smaller holdings of ARKB and Grayscale GBTC;
11. According to Lookonchain statistics, the address marked as "U.S. Government" has transferred a total of 15,940 BTC to Coinbase Prime in three times this year (10,000 BTC were transferred on August 15), with a value of approximately US$966.4 million. Within three days after the first two transfers, the BTC price fell by about 5%.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Large exchange net positions • Illiquidity whale
• High-quality selling pressure • Long-term investor holding structure
The inflows and outflows of large-scale net positions show that large inflows are gradually decreasing and the large-scale selling pressure in the market is gradually decreasing.
The large group of illiquid whale shows that they are still buying.
This shows that market support still exists.
High-quality selling pressure began to decline further and is approaching the blue low selling pressure area.
High-weight selling pressure further declined.
The increase in holdings by long-term participants and the resumption of buying behavior by long-term participants prove their optimism about the future market.
The market has not yet formed a vacuum zone, is not fragile, and has not entered a deep bear market.
Mid-term exploration
• USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score • Network Sentiment Positiveness • Liquidity Supply • On-chain Spot Total Selling Pressure • Price Structure Analysis
From the observation of this model, the buyer status of USDC shows that institutional users may have a higher willingness to buy.
While their buying status has not weakened, there is still buying power support in the market.
As online sentiment continues to recover, the decline has narrowed compared to before.
The speed at which the market moves in the short to medium term may depend on the speed at which sentiment is repaired.
The current structure is close to August-October 23.
There are signs that the liquidity supply has gradually recovered. It is possible that the liquidity that was previously insufficient is due to the lack of liquidity.
There will be some relief.
The recent performance of sellers is relatively close to the overall decline in selling pressure.
It is possible that under the current situation, the decline in seller power will affect the main body to become buyers.
(Analysis of price structure in the figure below)
The current top price of BTC stock is around 70317, and the high profit zone of long-term chips has risen to 79540.
Due to the extremely narrow profit margin, the currently calculated range is limited, so the incremental increase in the market will determine whether it can break through the top of the stock.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor • Option intention transaction ratio • Derivatives trading volume • Option implied volatility • Profit and loss transfer volume • New addresses and active addresses • BTC exchange net position • ETH exchange net position • High-weight selling pressure • Global purchasing power status • Stablecoin exchange net position • Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is close to the red zone, and the derivatives risk is increasing.
Last week, the risk factor touched the red zone and the market continued to fluctuate as expected. This week, the risk factor is close to the red zone again and the market is still inclined to fluctuate or make a small correction.
Options volume fell slightly, and the put option ratio was in the middle.
Derivatives trading volumes fell back to low levels after the market stabilized.
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to depressed
Both panic sentiment (orange line) and positive sentiment (blue line) have fallen to low levels. Usually the market will continue to fluctuate, but it also means the power to continue the next fluctuation.
Next, we will continue to pay attention to whether the blue line rebounds.
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC inflows accumulate, ETH has moderate outflows.
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
ETH exchange net positions are in a medium outflow state.
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has been lost slightly, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
America's purchasing power is once again being lost.
USDC exchange net positions have rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 57,000; there is a willingness to sell at 62,000.
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 52000~57000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 61000 and 65000.
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 54,000 to 57,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 60,000~63,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 55,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
From the latest 13F holdings table, we can see that in the second quarter, about 66% of institutional investors held or increased their BTC holdings through BTC spot ETFs, including well-known investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. BlackRock and Fidelity's spot BTC ETFs alone hold a total of $31.6 billion in BTC.
Unfortunately, it did not promote a big rise in the market, because of the joint selling of MtGox, Jump Trading, Germany/US/Grayscale and other addresses in the second quarter. The increase in holdings by leading institutions hopes that cryptocurrencies will outperform traditional stock markets in the future. Historically, the currency market has performed well in monetary easing cycles. Unfortunately, a large number of bankrupt institutions in 2022 and last year were liquidated recently, suppressing prices. In the short term, it will take the end of these liquidations before it can return to its alpha properties.
On-chain long-term insights:
1. Large selling pressure is decreasing;
2. Illiquid whale are still buying, supporting the market;
3. High-quality selling pressure is also decreasing, approaching the edge of low selling pressure;
4. Long-term players are buying back in, and structurally, there are no deep bear conditions at the moment.
• Market setting tone:
The selling pressure is decreasing and the market is becoming solid.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. Institutional users have higher purchasing power;
2. The mood in the market is gradually recovering and has warmed up to a certain extent compared with before;
3. Liquidity shows signs of a slight recovery;
4. Decline in seller power;
5. The top price of BTC stock is around 70317, and the incremental volume in the market will determine whether it can break through.
• Market setting tone:
The main factor affecting the market price in the accumulation market is no longer the selling pressure, but the strength of the buying power. It may require stronger buying power to squeeze the seller's space.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is close to the red area, and the risk of derivatives increases.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to depressed.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows an accumulation of BTC inflows and a moderate outflow of ETH.
5. Global purchasing power has been lost slightly, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 57,000 and a willingness to sell at 62,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that the price will not rise below 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
• Market setting tone:
The overall market sentiment is neutral to low, with low positive sentiment. At the same time, indicators show that the next volatility is also brewing. The overall expectation is basically the same as last week. The market may have limited rebound and is more inclined to range fluctuations.
Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
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