Goldman Sachs US election prediction: Harris has a big chance of winning but will become a "lame duck president"

On August 22, Goldman Sachs said in a research report released this week that according to the current situation, this year's US election may end with a "lame duck President Harris". Goldman Sachs said that at the national poll level, Harris is about 1.5 percentage points ahead of Trump and is leading in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. In general, Harris's probability of winning in November is about 52%-54%. Since she took over the banner of fighting Trump from Biden, the election situation has continued to rise in the past month. Since August 1 this year, the probability of the Republican Party winning the election has dropped by 10 percentage points, and the probability of the Democratic Party winning but the Republican Party controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives or at least one of the houses has increased by 11 percentage points. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that although this is the most likely implicit scenario at present, the result is still highly uncertain. (Jinshi)