Overnight, BTC recovered 59k. Today is the last day of August, and it is estimated that this month will close down with a high probability. In the past five months since March this year, you can see how well the market is controlled, 3 ups, 4 downs, 5 ups, 6 downs, 7 ups, 8 downs... It's like a comb, one tooth between the teeth. It's also like a piano, one black and one white.
Jiaolian will synchronize the macroeconomic policy-related trends and comments in the internal reference on a daily basis so that you can understand the current situation. This is actually more important than ordinary industry news, or your operation strategy and skills. After all, those who have succeeded will more or less realize that compared with their own hard work and personal struggle, going with the flow and taking advantage of the trend will allow you to achieve twice the result with half the effort and reach success faster.
There is an idiom in Chinese called "识时度势", which means to warn us that we should choose the right time to do things and grasp the direction of the situation.
If we want to translate "potential" into English, I think the word "momentum" is more appropriate. It is a direction of movement and a tendency to maintain the direction shown by the external macro environment, that is, the concept of "momentum" in physics. However, the "momentum" in physics is a manifestation of the movement trend of a tangible object, while the "potential" discussed here by the teaching chain is a movement tendency shown by an intangible environment.
According to Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), a German philosopher and founder of voluntarism, the momentum we perceive is nothing more than the game and manifestation of the power of will behind it.
Jiaolian believes that from the perspective of momentum, people can be divided into three categories: the first category of people can create momentum, or influence and change momentum. This is the elite. The second category of people can see the momentum clearly, but can only follow and take advantage of it, which is enough to achieve achievements of varying degrees. This is the ordinary person. The third category of people cannot see the general trend, or misjudge the situation, and either go with the flow without knowing it, or go astray and persist in their mistakes. This is a fool.
Of course, if we continue to break through this level of thinking, we can further realize that the so-called elites are nothing more than traders chosen by the willpower behind them.
The Federal Reserve is clearly one of the most elite examples. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is also one of them. Their every move, every piece of data they publish, and every decision they make affects the nerves of every investor in the world.
Today we are in an era of globalization, informatization and digitization. Every day we receive a large amount of digital indicator information to indicate changes and developments in the situation. However, information overload and blind men touching the elephant have become the biggest obstacles that prevent us from gaining insight into the current situation.
To solve these two problems, one is to eliminate noise and screen indicators, and the other is to correlate and cross-analyze. The former uses the idea of "Occam's razor" and the latter uses the holistic thinking of traditional Chinese medicine. When Jiaolian is doing macro-situation perception and synthesis in its daily internal reference, it actively draws on these ideas to try to get the effect of clearing the clouds and seeing the sun and dissecting the truth.
In the context of the times when the sun sets in the west and rises in the east, people may still be accustomed to having their attention completely attracted by the beautiful sunset in the west, but the dawn glow rising in the east and the morning glow will increasingly deserve more attention and attention.
Some foreign friends have found that since 2013, every rebound trend of China's 10-year treasury bond yield has miraculously coincided with the past three bull market processes of BTC: this was the case in 2013, 2017, and in late 2020-early 2021. As shown in the following figure:
Satoshi Nakamoto's thought tells us not to believe, but to verify. So Jiaolian found out the 10-year Chinese Treasury yield curve and the 10-year US Treasury yield curve to see what the actual situation is.
The following figure is the yield curve of China's 10-year government bonds (hereinafter referred to as "China bonds"):
As mentioned above, indicators are the manifestation of momentum, and momentum is the result of will.
Generally speaking, rising bond yields indicate that the market is selling, which has pushed down bond prices. The market selling bonds indicates that the risk appetite of financial capital is increasing, and they are withdrawing money from the bond market to pursue higher-risk, higher-yield opportunities.
Over the past decade, the yield of Chinese bonds has been declining overall, which shows that the risk appetite of financial capital is generally getting lower and lower, that is, it is becoming more stable and conservative. People would rather put their money in long-term government bonds for a relatively stable return than take risks in investment. This is in line with the general development law of the capital market, that is, the more money, the more stable and conservative.
Therefore, it is not easy to maintain the entrepreneurial spirit and keep working hard. This is true for both startups seeking to grow bigger and stronger and for countries seeking development and rejuvenation.
I remember that the central bank recently criticized some financial institutions for not listening to advice and increasing leverage and blindly rushing into the treasury bond market. It seems that the central bank was forced to sell bonds to combat this trend of bond speculation.
But how do we understand the puzzling phenomenon that BTC and Chinese bond yields are highly synchronized during the bull market development stage, but on a cross-cycle or long-cycle scale, the trends are divergent - BTC is getting higher and higher, while Chinese bond yields are getting lower and lower?
One explanation that Jiaolian can think of is that BTC behaves as a risky asset in a single bull market cycle, and behaves as a safe-haven asset in a cross-cycle or long-cycle scale. ChinaBond is a risk hedging asset in the short cycle and a safe-haven asset in the long cycle.
That is to say, when the risk appetite of capital increases, the rise of BTC starts the bull market, and the yield of Chinese bonds rebounds. When the risk appetite of capital changes, the two peak and fall back simultaneously. However, the overall development direction of capital tends to be stable and conservative, so more and more capital will be deposited in risk-resistant assets. Therefore, after each cycle, more will always return. This is also manifested in the fact that on a cross-cycle or long-cycle scale, the market value of BTC is getting higher and higher, and the yield of Chinese bonds is getting lower and lower.
This statement can be understood in reverse, that is, capital votes with its feet and silently expresses its opinion: BTC is a relatively good cross-cycle safe-haven asset in the eyes of capital. The same is true for China Bonds.
Let’s take a look at the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (hereinafter referred to as “U.S. Treasury bond”) yield curve for comparison:
The situation is quite different.
In the past ten years, although U.S. Treasuries have behaved like a risk-hedge asset in the short term, such as the yield increases in 2013, 2017-2018, and late 2020-early 2022, in the long term, it has acted contrary to its norm and has not behaved like a safe-haven asset. Instead, the risk has become increasingly higher - this is directly reflected in the surge in U.S. Treasury yields.
Some people may say that bond yields reflect the impact of interest rates. However, Jiaolian does not think so. Jiaolian believes that whether it is an artificially adjusted interest rate or a market-priced bond yield, they are just different manifestations of the will behind it.
The abnormal surge in U.S. Treasury yields after 2020 reflects a grim fact: some powerful wills no longer want to continue paying for U.S. Treasury bonds.
This is a challenge not seen since the 1980s.
The following is a century-long trend chart of US debt (1924-2024):
It can be seen that from the Volcker moment in the 1980s to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, U.S. debt has experienced a wonderful 40 years.
Over the past 40 years, the number of US debts has increased, but the yield has been falling. This shows that US debts are very popular in the market, and everyone is rushing to buy them. There is no need for high interest rate promotions. Instead, they are regarded as safe-haven assets by investors for long-term holding.
I wonder if the American elites, while secretly rejoicing that issuing bonds and printing money is so easy and enjoyable, have ever thought about what the real reason was for this 40-year long and extremely wonderful golden age?
This 40-year period, the longest, most stable decline in yields and the strongest risk-averse nature in the 100-year history of U.S. debt, coincides with the 40 years of China's reform and opening up.
It was China that made the US debt glorious for 40 years from 1980 to 2020. This is the naked conclusion we draw from the data.
This golden age that lasted for half a lifetime came to an abrupt end after the candid dialogue in Alaska in 2021.
The Chinese side's words seemed to be a summary of the 40 years that had passed so suddenly and seemed infinitely beautiful: "We thought too highly of you; you have no right to say in front of China that you are talking to China from a position of strength."
Now, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is in a dilemma. If he raises interest rates, the US economy may go into recession. If he lowers interest rates, how will the Treasury sell US debt in the future?
At present, the outlook for US and Chinese bonds gives completely opposite guidance to the future of BTC:
If we observe that the U.S. Treasury yield of 4% is at a local high and will fall next, then this judgment may guide BTC into a downward cycle.
If we observe that the Chinese bond yield of 2.2% is at a local low and will rebound next, then this judgment may guide BTC into an upward cycle.
Dear readers, please think independently, which option would you bet on?
