The key turning point under the EMA framework: Is Bitcoin the start of a bull market or another pullback? Through the filtering of the EMA moving average, we find that the current position of Bitcoin has similar historical trends. The first time: May 17, 2021 After Bitcoin's weekly line fell below the EMA20, a large bearish candle directly hit the EMA55 moving average. Subsequently, the price consolidated around the EMA20 resistance and the EMA50 support for 56 days, forming a descending triangle. Finally, the price broke through the EMA20 resistance on July 26 and then rose 73.08%, setting a new historical high of $69,000. The second time: November 29, 2021 Bitcoin fell below the EMA20 again, heading straight for the EMA50 support. Unlike the first time, the price was unable to hold the EMA50 support this time, leading to a bear market that lasted 329 days, with a drop of 66.19%. Based on these historical trends, we can make the following judgments: 1. Although lagging, the indicators are still a reliable analysis framework. 2. The market is unpredictable, maintain a neutral view, and seek opportunities at low-risk positions. 3. This logic also applies to the 4-hour or daily charts. My current market judgment: Q1: Bitcoin has now retested the EMA50 twice and rebounded. How should we interpret this? A1: This is a normal EMA50 support rebound. It is still too early to say that the 180-day consolidation period has ended or that this is the final decline. Q2: Does the current trend more resemble historical trend 1 or 2? A2: The current trend seems to be in the early stage of replicating historical trend 1, but it is worth noting that Bitcoin retested the EMA50 6 times in historical trend 1, while we have only retested it 2 times so far. Q3: What are the criteria for judging whether Bitcoin will break through $100,000 or enter a bear market? A3: The price needs to break through the EMA20 to expect a return to the previous high area. As for $100,000, that can only be judged after breaking through the previous high. If it's just for analysis, we can draw a line to $100,000 here, but it has no practical guidance for real trading. If it falls below the EMA50, the next support point will be at the EMA100, which is around $45,000. Being one step ahead, you can be prosperous; being two steps ahead, you can lose everything. As long as you can adhere to the trading discipline and be a little faster than most people, you can make a lot of money. Q4: How to operate now? A4: In historical trend 1, Bitcoin's highest rebound was 37.4%. Currently, you can consider participating in the rebound operation around the EMA50, but be sure to take profits in time. The EMA20 area on the weekly chart is a relatively good short position.

By applying the band filter analysis, the most ideal position to catch the sharp rise of Bitcoin at present is that Bitcoin goes through a wide range of fluctuations around EMA50, and finally the band filter shows oversold (the last drop), followed by the start of a vigorous bull market.