Since the current market rhythm is basically locked in — a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week, it seems that everyone is no longer interested in economic data in the short term.
The data ignored last night, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week, the PPI data, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week, recorded 230,000, in line with expectations, higher than the previous value, the first increase in the past three weeks, the labor market is cooling down. This data is more in line with the gradual slowdown of the US economy. The PPI producer price index, the annual rate recorded 1.7%, lower than the expected and previous value, at the same time, the July data was revised down, the monthly rate recorded 0.2%, higher than the expected 0.1%, higher than the previous value 0%. The data shows that the producer price index has slowed down year-on-year and increased slightly month-on-month. The data basically confirms yesterday's CPI data.
Originally, CPI data was closely related to PPI data and was also an important data released in the same week. However, since the focus of both the Federal Reserve and the market has shifted from inflation to employment, and the expectation of the first interest rate cut is currently locked at 25 basis points, the market's attention to this data has dropped significantly. Looking at the performance of CPI, the attention is also very low. Favorable data cannot attract market attention, while negative data will cause concerns. It seems that before the interest rate cut, only if there is a possibility that the first interest rate cut can be increased to 50 basis points without triggering an economic recession can it attract market attention.
Market Analysis
The market is stuck around 58000 again. There is resistance at 58500 on the top and it cannot go up after several breakthroughs. There is support at 57700 on the bottom and it has been quickly recovered after several declines. It is difficult to distinguish between long and short positions. Brothers, don’t guess the long and short positions in this range. Wait for the market to give clear signals!
Operational ideas
1: Today's important change cycle is in four hours, that is, 57722. As long as the four-hour closing line does not fall below 57722, the four-hour is still on the bullish side, and the target will continue to hit the resistance level of 58500. This wave of market must break through 58500 in one hour before it can go up. Remember that it is a closing breakthrough, not a pin breakthrough. Once the closing breakthrough is made, the target is still 59188.59762.
2: If the four-hour closing price falls below 57722, then this wave of rise will end, and a second daily decline will be carried out, with targets at 56673, 56168 and 5517
3: Whether it breaks through 58500 or falls below 57722, I will give you a reference value, which is the two-hour support of 58000. Make a judgment based on the two-hour closing line.
At present, the overall trend is weak, and it is on the short side in one hour and two hours. Don't chase high easily. Secondly, the cost performance is not high and the risk is high.
Chicken Soup for the Soul
Remember, the market is always volatile. It will not rise forever, nor will it fall forever. What we need to do is not to be confused by the ups and downs in front of us, but to be firm in our strategies, control our positions, and seize opportunities at critical moments.
Now is the best time to accumulate strength. Adjust your mentality and operate calmly. Next, we will have our chance! Be patient and the strong will always be strong.
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