Today, gold broke through its all-time high, the three major U.S. stock indexes all opened higher and closed higher, and the crypto also rose across the board.
Everything is so abnormal. Why do all the US dollar assets seem to be stimulated and boosted?
This points to something very unusual, that is, overnight, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates suddenly increased from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Last night, the probability of a 50 basis point cut increased from less than 20% to 49% today. What happened overnight that made the Fed change its mind?
Nick, a reporter from the Wall Street Journal who is known as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, published several blog posts in a row, mentioning that the Federal Reserve is now in a very awkward dilemma of whether the interest rate should be 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
First, in his first article, he said that the Fed is more suitable to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is exactly the same as the market's previous prediction. But he immediately published a second article with a completely different flavor. He quoted a well-known market figure, a famous advisor to Powell, who gave Powell a suggestion. He said that since the market predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, why don't you start with a 50 basis point cut? This will make the US economy improve faster.
The market was worried that a 50 basis point rate cut would make people think that the US economy was in recession. Powell only needed to come out and use his words to dispel the market's doubts. Later, Dudley, the former third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve and chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, made a public speech in support of a 50 basis point rate cut.
The fact that Bitcoin broke through 60,000 proves that the market is panicking about a 50 basis point rate cut and Bitcoin will plummet, which is self-defeating.
With interest rate cuts coming, how can we make money in the bull market?
You can make money if you meet the following 3 conditions
(1) Don’t buy high-inflation tokens, otherwise the selling pressure of tens of millions per day will only lead to a downward trend.
(2) Do not trade contracts. Otherwise, a margin call will wipe out your principal, and even if the price goes up later, it will have nothing to do with you.
(3) Don’t be scared by other analysts. Don’t panic and sell at the bottom. Ignore small fluctuations. The probability of small fluctuations is unclear, so you can only gamble.
Next Thursday, September 19th at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
If it is 50 basis points, then BTC will accelerate to $70,000
If it is 25 basis points, then it will be slower.
Market Analysis
At the 4-hour level, Bitcoin has broken through and stood above 60,000, which means that the short-term adjustment is about to end, and the subsequent upward adjustment will gradually reach the upper real resistance around 62,800. When this position breaks through and stands firm, it will truly start a daily level counterattack and lead the cryptocurrencies to rise again. At that time, there will be a violent bull market.
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