Most of the recent soft data are good, and the hard data are average, but the overall inflation risk has significantly weakened. Overall, it still does not support the expectation of recession. Therefore, even a 50 basis point cut will hardly make the market hedge significantly, but may stimulate upward speculative sentiment. However, I personally think that the possibility of 50 basis points as the first interest rate cut is low, because 25 basis points is easier at the beginning, and it can be increased later. If 50 basis points is cut at the beginning, the market will expect that the rate will remain at this rate, and it will not be easy to reduce the rate later.