ChatGPT visits have dropped sharply! At this point in time when AI bubble theory is rampant, any negative news will trigger a chain reaction, especially for the industry leader OpenAI. Just recently, Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe and chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, said, "In terms of monthly users, the initial 'excitement' about ChatGPT is fading."
The negative outlook given by a prestigious investment institution like Goldman Sachs undoubtedly added fuel to the AI bubble theory. Then last Friday, large technology stocks in the US stock market fell across the board, so many people attributed it to the remarks of the Goldman Sachs analyst. So is the AI bubble really about to burst? There seems to be no sign for the time being, at least Goldman Sachs is not the whistleblower.
This is because Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist made a big mistake. The reason why they think that ChatGPT's visits have dropped significantly is that the analyst cited data from SimilarWeb, the world's most popular website analysis tool, which showed that ChatGPT's website visits showed a cliff-like decline in April and May this year. However, this chart from SimilarWeb is problematic.
Just after Goldman Sachs concluded that ChatGPT traffic was declining and users had lost interest in it, SimilarWeb said that there was a reason for the "dive" in ChatGPT traffic. Because in April this year, OpenAI transferred the domain name of ChatGPT to chatgpt.com, and Goldman Sachs showed data based on the old domain name, but the actual situation is that the number of visits to ChatGPT has been on the rise.
The reason why such a mistake caused such a huge impact was not only because of Goldman Sachs, but also because of the growing concerns of the capital market about the prospects of AI. In fact, it is not the first time that the number of visits to ChatGPT has dropped. Earlier in July last year, data from Similarweb showed that the traffic of ChatGPT had dropped for the first time since its launch last fall.
However, the cooling of ChatGPT on the user side did not change the company's optimistic attitude towards generative AI. At that time, the industry's interpretation of this phenomenon was that using chatbots based on large AI models such as ChatGPT requires skills, and users need to know how to use prompts to guide AI to generate content that meets expectations. In this way, if you want ChatGPT to help you, you not only need to understand what you want, but also understand the operating logic of ChatGPT.
Since there are certain barriers to entry, a large number of users will naturally choose to "abandon the pit" when the novelty wears off. However, enterprise users are now expecting AI big models to empower their businesses or improve workflows, thereby reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Just like machines replacing human labor, many companies also hope that AI will replace humans in production work.
Unfortunately, despite the fact that a year has passed, with the continuous reports from various media, the concept of AI has become popular, and ordinary users have a certain understanding of operating AI chatbots. At the same time, thanks to OpenAI's continuous iteration of the model to improve the performance of ChatGPT, the user experience of ChatGPT has been greatly improved compared to a year ago. For example, on the C-end, ChatGPT is becoming more and more popular.
On the other hand, when AI products are still subject to ethical and legal risks, many corporate users are actually concerned about their widespread use. Another problem is that C-end users are not even willing to pay for ChatGPT Plus at $20 per month, and the paid penetration rate has been hovering at a low level. This is why Fu Shenghui, chairman of Orion Star, said that with so much money being burned now, user growth is the core lifeblood of OpenAI, because if there is no growth, it will be troublesome if the valuation cannot be raised to a higher level in the next round of financing.
The reality today is that this kind of trouble has already happened to OpenAI. Not long ago, they completed a round of financing, led by Thrive Capital, which invested only $1 billion, and the valuation has only increased from 80 billion a year ago to 100 billion now. Obviously, this does not mean that OpenAI is thriving, but rather it feels like it has hit the "rookie wall".
Currently, OpenAI's dilemma is that ChatGPT Plus, which costs $20 per month, is expected to generate $2 billion in annual revenue, but its growth rate is not enough to cover the huge cost of operating the service, which forces OpenAI to seek a more powerful growth engine. To be precise, the core problem of OpenAI at present is to prove that AGI is achievable, and the route they have chosen can achieve AGI within three to five years.
But the problem is that the 11-member founding team of OpenAI has fallen apart, with only two remaining in the company. With internal turmoil and external competitors eyeing the company, OpenAI's current situation is definitely not very good. Therefore, in this case, Goldman Sachs' cold water will naturally cause market turmoil.
Although Goldman Sachs has made a fool of itself, if the situation of OpenAI does not improve, the rumors may become a far-reaching prophecy.
[The pictures in this article are from the Internet]
This article comes from the WeChat public account "Sanyi Life" (ID: IT-3eLife) , author: Sanyijun, and is authorized to be published by 36Kr.
