CICC: The possibility of a soft landing of the US economy in the short term will further increase

Odaily Odaily CICC Research Report pointed out that from the perspective of interest rate resolution, the Fed has adopted a more substantial 50 basis point rate cut, which is more aggressive than we expected. The monetary policy statement pointed out that recent inflation data has given policymakers more confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Fed's actions show that its reaction function has completely shifted from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment. We believe this is a signal that the Fed has a low tolerance for rising unemployment and officials do not want to take risks and undermine the bright prospects of a "soft landing". Based on Powell's statement, we believe that any unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% in the future may trigger more rate cuts. This also shows that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance until the data in the job market stabilizes. Looking ahead, as the Fed has adopted a more substantial rate cut, the possibility of a soft landing of the economy in the short term will further increase.