Guosheng Macro: The Fed's sharp interest rate cut may strengthen the market's recession expectations

According to ChainCatcher, Guosheng Macroeconomic Team said that the Fed cut interest rates by 50bp, which was slightly higher than market expectations. However, Powell's speech was hawkish, saying that the rate cut was not normal. The dot plot shows another 50bp cut this year, and the market expects another 75bp cut this year. Combining historical rules and asset performance after this meeting, this substantial rate cut should have intensified market concerns about a US recession. We tend to believe that considering that it takes time to disprove recession expectations and the US election on November 5, the prices of major asset classes may fluctuate greatly in the short term. We need to keep a close eye on whether various US data can confirm or disprove recession expectations, and also keep a close eye on the progress of the election. (Jinshi)