According to ChainCatcher, Bitfinex released a report saying, "Despite Bitcoin's strong performance, Bitcoin has not yet broken through the key high of $65,200 on August 25. This is very important because if Bitcoin fails to break through this level, it will confirm a pattern since the all-time high of $73,666 in March, that is, Bitcoin fails to exceed any previous highs and forms a new local bottom, maintaining a downward trend. In other words, on a longer time scale, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since March.
Furthermore, despite recent price gains giving reason for optimism, the growth in Bitcoin open interest has outpaced the rise in Bitcoin’s price itself, suggesting that last week’s moves came more from futures and perpetual markets than spot markets.
At the same time, we have also seen a surge in some Altcoin, with some well-known tokens up more than 100% from their lows in August and September. However, caution is needed here as Altcoin open interest has also reached new highs, but there has been no corresponding price breakout across the Altcoin market as a whole. The OTHERS index (which measures the performance of Altcoin outside the top 10 by market cap) has continued to fall over the past month.
As Bitcoin spot market buying slows down and spot cumulative volume increments level off at $63,500, we expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound in the short term.
Nonetheless, an important counter-argument is that continued ETF inflows could boost Bitcoin prices. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded new inflows, adding $397.2 million. This suggests that if traditional financial markets such as the S&P 500 continue to rise, Bitcoin still has the potential to rise further. If Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels in late August, this could push its price to new highs, especially as the summer period of low liquidity ends. However, without sustained spot buying, Bitcoin is most likely to see consolidation or a partial pullback. ”
