Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The call for Upoctber has been going on since September, but the market played a joke on the public. On September 30, after the upward momentum of BTC showed signs of exhaustion, it dropped from $65,000 all the way down, and even fell below the $60,000 mark today, with the lowest price at $59,828. Ethereum also followed the ups and downs of Bitcoin, falling from $2,700 to above $2,300, close to $2,100, and almost hitting a new low in months. The gains of some Altcoin since mid-September were quickly wiped out by more than half.
In terms of contracts, according to Coinglass data, 278 million USD was liquidated in 24 hours, of which 219 million USD was liquidated in long orders. The open positions of BTC futures contracts on the entire network also fell below 32 billion USD.
The highly anticipated "Rising October" has just begun, but the market performance is so bleak. What is the reason?
Bitcoin spot ETF data has been outflowing for two consecutive days
Data shows that since September 12, only on the 18th of the month was there a small net outflow, and the remaining weeks were all large net outflows. However, when it comes to October, the data is not optimistic. On October 1, the single-day net outflow was US$242.5 million, and on October 2, the net outflow continued to be US$91.76 million.
Aurelie Barthere, chief research analyst at Nansen, reminded at the end of September that the Federal Reserve has just injected more vitality into this bull market, but the prices of risky assets have already reflected a lot. Considering the downside asymmetric risks, a safer strategy is to cut crypto positions when the market rebounds.
Some off-market funds chose to take profits and then wait and see. The net outflow of 230 million US dollars for two consecutive days significantly reduced the buying power and increased the selling pressure.
Geopolitical risks intensify
On the evening of October 1, local time, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel, codenamed "Real Promise 2". The attack lasted about 45 minutes, with a total of about 200 missiles fired at Israel, causing widespread damage and casualties in Israel, especially in central cities such as Tel Aviv. This move is seen as Iran's passive retaliation for Israel's recent series of actions, and also a serious warning to Israel.
Israel responded quickly and forcefully to the Iranian missile attack. Although the details of the specific retaliatory actions may be kept secret due to military strategy, the Israeli government has made it clear that it will not tolerate such attacks and plans to take further action. It is reported that Israel plans to launch a major retaliatory operation in the coming days, and the target may be oil production facilities and other important strategic targets in Iran.
Currently, the Fed's expectations of a sharp rate cut have weakened, coupled with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, market concerns have returned, global stock markets have generally fallen, and oil prices have risen. Investors are waiting for Israel's response to Iran's attack and the US non-farm data for September tomorrow night.
As risky assets with high liquidity, crypto assets such as BTC are the first to be negatively affected by geopolitical conflicts and show their violent volatility. When faced with uncertain concerns, investors often choose to sell off and wait and see, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
Market Trend
QCP Capital: Middle East geopolitics should not distract investors, the market's willingness to buy risky assets remains strong
QCP Capital posted on its official channel that the conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified. Crypto has been hit much harder, with BTC closing down 4% and seemingly finding some support at the $60,000 level, but further escalation could push BTC down to $55,000. Middle East geopolitics will attract attention, but shallow selling suggests that the market's willingness to buy risky assets remains strong. This minor setback should not distract from the bigger picture.
Matrixport: Institutional confidence increases, and a surge in stablecoin minting boosts Bitcoin's bullish momentum
Matrixport released a research report saying that recently, the amount of stablecoin minting has climbed to the highest level since the peak in March-April, indicating that new fiat money is flowing into the crypto market, which is a bullish signal. In February 2024, a similar surge in stablecoin issuance drove a sharp rise in Bitcoin prices. If this minting momentum continues, Bitcoin prices are expected to rise further. It is worth noting that since the FOMC meeting on July 31, the speed of stablecoin minting has accelerated significantly, reflecting the increased confidence of institutions in a low-interest rate environment, which in turn boosted optimism in the crypto market.
CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin is expected to rise to the $85,000-100,000 range in Q4
CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin is entering a positive seasonal phase, but increased demand is key to BTC prices reaching $100,000 in the fourth quarter. By 2024, Bitcoin's performance is similar to that of 2016 and 2020 through September. CryptoQuant analysts say institutional demand from U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is key to further Bitcoin price growth. "If ETF demand continues to accelerate, it could drive prices higher in the last quarter of 2024. On-chain data valuation indicators suggest that Bitcoin could target a price range of $85,000-100,000 in the fourth quarter on the back of a recovery in demand and favorable seasonality.
