The closely watched US election has entered the final month of the countdown. In the long run, regardless of the election result, Bitcoin will develop positively under the conditions of low interest rates and the normal and unprecedented debt levels of the US fiscal deficit. If the Democratic candidate Harris ultimately wins, the cryptocurrency market may be hit in the short term, and Bitcoin may retest the $40,000 support; but if former US President Trump wins, it will be more conducive to the rise of Bitcoin, and it may even surge to the key resistance of $80,000.
In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin briefly touched $62,411 earlier yesterday due to the rise in US stocks, but then plummeted sharply. Early this morning around 5 o'clock, it hit a low of $60,302. As of the time of writing, it is quoted at $61,149, down 1.73% in the last 24 hours. It remains to be seen whether it can stabilize above $60,000.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the Bitcoin price is trading between the middle and lower bands, and is currently approaching the lower band, indicating that the market is testing the support level. If the price fails to effectively break below the lower band and stabilize, the price will rebound towards the middle band or even the upper band. If the price effectively breaks below the lower band and continues to decline, it indicates that the bearish force is strong, and there will be further downside space.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K-line value and D-line value are both running below 50, and the J-line value is even more depressed, indicating that the market is currently in a weak state. However, the three KDJ lines are currently in the oversold state, which may carry the risk of a rebound. It remains to be observed whether the KDJ indicator will turn upwards and form a golden cross, in which case the price will rebound.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are both running below the 0 axis, indicating that the current market is in a bearish trend. However, the green MACD histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the bearish force is weakening. If the DIF line continues to approach the DEA line and forms a golden cross, it may bring about a rebound. But if a death cross forms again at the bottom, the price may continue to decline.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the current Bitcoin price is above the middle band, and it may test the resistance level near the upper band in the short term. If the price breaks through the upper band with relatively large trading volume, it may usher in an upward trend. If the price fails to effectively break through the upper band, it may fall back to the middle band or even the lower band to find support.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K-line value and D-line value are both at high levels, and the J-line value has already entered the overbought zone, so it may face short-term correction pressure in the near future. If the KDJ indicator forms a death cross in the overbought zone, it will confirm the possibility of a correction.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are about to converge below the 0 axis, indicating that the overall market is still in a bearish trend. The green MACD histogram is gradually shortening, and the red histogram is starting to appear, indicating that there is a chance of a short-term rebound. If the DIF line and DEA form a golden cross, it may have further upward momentum.
In summary, from the perspective of the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, the current situation is still in a weak phase, with MACD and KDJ both showing the dominance of the bears, but there is also a certain rebound potential, especially since KDJ is in the oversold zone, a short-term rebound may occur. On the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, there is a certain rebound momentum, with the appearance of the red MACD histogram and the support of the Bollinger Bands middle band indicating that the rebound may continue. However, KDJ is in the overbought zone, and the risk of a correction needs to be watched.
In summary, the wizard gives the following suggestions for reference:
Long Bitcoin at $60,400-$60,600, with a target of $61,600-$62,000, and defend $60,000.
Writing time: (2024-10-10, 18:45)
(Text - Wizard Talks Coins)
