This Week (10/6-10/12) Important Events Overview
- The Fed is in a stalemate: The US August CPI was slightly higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims also rose, adding variables to the November rate cut.
- Taiwan FSC is advancing: It will open BTC custody services, with banks and securities firms expected to pilot in Q1 next year.
- VASP industry must register comprehensively: From 2025, Taiwan virtual asset service providers must apply for a license according to new regulations. After the registration system takes effect, the current compliance declaration system will be abolished simultaneously.
- China's A-shares fluctuate: After the Golden Week, A-shares surged and then quickly corrected.
- Satoshi Nakamoto's identity controversy resurfaces: An HBO documentary identified Peter Todd as Satoshi Nakamoto, which was refuted by Todd himself.
- CZ's dynamics: After regaining his freedom, CZ, the founder of Binance, announced this week that he will participate in Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai at the end of October in his personal capacity.
This Week's Trading Market Data Changes
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator this week decreased from 41 (neutral) to 37 (fear).
2. Funding Rate Heat Map and Decrease in Long Premium
This week, the highest BTC funding rate reached 11.59%, and the lowest was 1.22%. The volatility of BTC price has a certain synchronous relationship with the funding rate, but most of the time, the market performance this week was relatively stable.
The Funding Rate Heat Map shows the trend of funding rate changes for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from the zero-rate green to the 50% positive rate yellow, and black representing the negative rate; the white candlestick chart also shows the BTC price fluctuations, contrasting with the funding rate.
3. Sectors Broadly Declined
According to Artemis data showing, the average gain of blockchain sector this week was (-1.9%), with Social, Centralized Exchanges, DeFi occupying the top three at (7.9%, -11.4%, -12%) respectively.
The weekly gains of BTC and ETH were (-2.4%, -0.2%).
The three worst-performing sectors were: DePIN (-8.6%), Cross-Chain Bridges (-7.5%), and Gaming (-6.8%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Crypto Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
The total crypto market cap data this week showed an increase from $2.11 trillion to $2.12 trillion, an increase of $10 billion, or about 0.47%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, decreased from $159.64 billion to $159.4 billion this week, a decrease of $2.4 billion, or about -0.15%.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
This week's data shows that the net position change on exchanges is positive, and USDT and USDC have shown a decreasing trend this week.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Net Inflow of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
This week, the ETF funds for BTC had a net inflow of $129.1 million, although there were outflows, the overall trend is still positive.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current BTC price is in the "Consider Buying" zone ($60,000), between the "Consider DCA" stage ($70,000) and the "Extreme Bubble" stage ($52,000).
3. BTC Net Realized Profit/Loss
The indicator of BTC's realized net profit/loss shows that the current market sentiment has improved, and the ratio of profits to losses is similar to October 2023.
4. Long-Term BTC Holders
According to on-chain data, the net position change of Long-Term Holders (LTH) this week showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. From October 5th to 7th, the holdings of long-term holders continued to increase, indicating confidence in the market, but from October 8th, there was a significant decrease, indicating that some investors chose to realize profits or reduce their risk exposure during the price fluctuations.
5. On-Chain Long-Term Buying Power Selling
According to on-chain data, the BTC market this week showed a large-scale selling by long-term holders. At the same time, short-term holders continued to increase their holdings during the price decline, indicating that they have stronger confidence in the long-term value of BTC and are using market volatility to position themselves.
6. BTC Futures Open Interest
According to data, the open interest of BTC futures on exchanges has shown a stable upward trend this week, rising from $32.3 billion to $33.3 billion. Compared to last week, the market performance this week shows a rebound in open interest, reflecting the gradually positive attitude of market participants at the current price level.
Important Ethereum Technical Indicators
1. Continuous Net Inflow of Ethereum Spot ETFs
This week, the ETF funds for ETH had a net inflow of about $2 million.
2. BTC Correlation
This week's data shows that the correlation between BTC and ETH, SOL is 0.92 and 0.98 respectively. Compared to last week, the correlation between BTC and ETH has risen significantly from 0.90 to 0.92. This week, the market trend has become more consistent, especially the linkage between SOL and other mainstream coins has further increased, while the correlation between BNB and other coins has rebounded.
3. Total Value Locked (TVL) in the DeFi Market
This week's data shows that the DeFi market is relatively stable, with the total locked value declining slightly from $81.7 billion to $81.2 billion, a decrease of $500 million.
Weekly Market Analysis News
1. Bottomed Out? Bitcoin Rebounds Sharply After Dipping to $59,000, as CPI and Jobs Data Disappoint, Dragging Down Stocks
Bitcoin hit a low of $58,935 at midnight, the lowest since September 17, and Ethereum dipped to $2,330. However, both have since rebounded quickly, recouping their previous losses. (Continue reading)
2. China's A-Shares Turn Red! Major Shareholders "Liquidating Like Crazy", Economist Xie Jingheng Warns: "Beer Bubble Won't Last Long"
After the end of China's Golden Week holiday, the stock market surged on Tuesday's opening, but the momentum fizzled out completely by Wednesday, with the three major A-share indexes deep in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index plunging as much as 6% at one point. Regarding Beijing's massive stimulus to prop up the market, economist Xie Jingheng sighed: "How long can the beer bubble last?"(Continue reading)
3. Is Satoshi Nakamoto Developer Peter Todd? The Person Himself Refutes the HBO Documentary: "This Is Too Absurd"
Cullen Hoback, a renowned documentary filmmaker, has released his latest documentary "The Crypto Conspiracy: Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?" on Tuesday, alleging that former Bitcoin Core developer Peter Todd is the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. However, the arguments presented in the documentary are considered too tenuous, and not only does the Bitcoin community not accept them, but Peter Todd himself has also personally denied being Satoshi Nakamoto. (Continue reading)
4. Trump and Musk join forces! They rally at the Pennsylvania shooting site and aggressively campaign, how do the relevant meme coins perform?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk appeared at a rally in Pennsylvania to express his support for Trump and urged the public to take action to help Trump win the election. (Continue reading)
5. Court approves: FTX to initiate $16 billion repayment (creditors receive 18% interest), is Bitcoin returning to the bull market countdown?
The restructuring team of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX has had its repayment plan approved by Judge John Dorsey earlier. The vast majority of customers (creditors with an amount of less than $50,000) can expect to receive approximately 118% of their losses, and the repayment is expected to be initiated by the end of 2024 at the earliest. (Continue reading)
Cryptocurrency Regulatory Status in Different Countries
1. Hong Kong Virtual Currency Regulation: What's the Difference Between VASP and VATP, and Do They Both Require a License?
Do you understand the difference between "Virtual Asset Service Providers" (VASP) and "Virtual Asset Trading Platforms" (VATP), and their regulatory approaches under Hong Kong law? (Continue reading)
2. The Virtual Asset Registration System Will Be Launched Next Year, and the Compliance Declaration Will Be Phased Out! VASP Association: We Will Guide Operators to Complete the Preparation
The Financial Supervisory Commission recently announced regulatory amendments, and the virtual asset registration system will be officially launched in 2025. The current 26 operators who have completed the compliance declaration must adjust accordingly, or they will not be allowed to continue their virtual asset business. In response, the Taiwan Virtual Currency Association welcomes this development and will assist and guide operators to complete the preparations in accordance with the regulations. (Continue reading)
3. Important Announcement from the UAE: Cryptocurrency Transactions Exempt from VAT! A Major Boost for Local Investment
The UAE recently announced that the transfer and conversion of cryptocurrencies will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT). This new policy will be retroactively applicable from 2018 and will be accompanied by new guidelines on tax compliance for virtual asset companies. (Continue reading)
On October 9, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a civil lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts against three cryptocurrency market makers and related individuals, as well as another related cryptocurrency company, alleging fraud and market manipulation. (Continue reading)
On October 8, the Financial Supervisory Commission officially announced that it will open applications for "Virtual Asset Custody Business Pilot Program" for banks and securities firms, aiming to meet the growing demand for virtual asset custody and promote financial innovation. (Continue reading)
On the 8th, a former Russian state investigator, Marat Tambiyev, was sentenced to 16 years in prison for accepting a bribe worth $65 million (about 1,032 BTC), making it one of the largest bribery cases in Russian history. (Continue reading)
Market Highlights for Next Week
10/11 (Fri)
- UK: August GDP (MoM), forecast 0.2%, previous 0.0%
- Germany: September CPI (MoM), forecast 0.0%, previous -0.1%
- US: September PPI (MoM), forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%
10/16 (Wed)
- UK: CPI (YoY) (September), previous 2.2%
10/17 (Thu)
- Eurozone: September CPI (YoY), forecast 1.8%, previous 2.2%
- Eurozone: October Deposit Facility Rate, previous 3.50%
- Eurozone: October Interest Rate Decision, forecast 3.65%
- US: September Core Retail Sales (MoM), previous 0.1%
- US: Initial Jobless Claims
- US: October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, previous 1.7
- US: September Retail Sales (MoM), previous 0.1%
- Eurozone: ECB Press Conference
10/18 (Fri)
- China: Q3 GDP (YoY), previous 4.7%
- China: September Industrial Production (YoY), previous 4.5%
- Hong Kong: September Unemployment Rate, previous 3.0%
Recommended Events
BlockTempo Gathering #149 
Blockchain Legal Experts & Exchange Insiders (Registration Link)
Unravel the mystery behind Ko Wen-je's cold wallet and analyze the misconceptions about crypto money laundering and on-chain & internet crimes!
Time: October 16, Wednesday
Top 5 Popular Articles This Week
1. Nvidia Accused of Hiding Over $1 Billion in Revenue from Crypto Miners, US DOJ and SEC Support Class Action Lawsuit Against Nvidia 'CZ' must be translated into 'CZ'. 'BlockTempo' must be translated into 'BlockTempo'. 'ABMedia' must be translated into 'ABMedia'. 'crypto' must be translated into 'crypto'. 'Bit' must be translated into 'Bit'. 'Block' must be translated into 'Block'. 'DeFi' must be translated into 'DeFi'. 'Longing' must be translated into 'Longing'. 'Short' must be translated into 'Short'. 'Tether' must be translated into 'Tether'. 'ROA' must be translated into 'ROA'. 'holder' must be translated into 'holder'. 'MEME' must be translated into 'MEME'. 'defillama' must be translated into 'defillama'. 'glassnode' must be translated into 'glassnode'. 'USDT' must be translated into 'USDT'. 'BNB' must be translated into 'BNB'. 'Cardano' must be translated into 'Cardano'. 'Dogecoin' must be translated into 'Dogecoin'. 'Solana' must be translated into 'Solana'. 'TRON' must be translated into 'TRON'. 'Sui' must be translated into 'Sui'. 'Threshold' must be translated into 'Threshold'. 'UMA' must be translated into 'UMA'. 'Amp' must be translated into 'Amp'. 'Ren' must be translated into 'Ren'. 'BTC' must be translated into 'BTC'. 'ETH' must be translated into 'ETH'. 'Doge' must be translated into 'Doge'. 'SOL' must be translated into 'SOL'. 'ETC' must be translated into 'ETC'. 'FIL' must be translated into 'FIL'. 'HT' must be translated into 'HT'. 'FEI' must be translated into 'FEI'. 'XEM' must be translated into 'XEM'. 'OP' must be translated into 'OP'. 'ENS' must be translated into 'ENS'. 'AR' must be translated into 'AR'. 'XCH' must be translated into 'XCH'. 'AMP' must be translated into 'AMP'. 'meme' must be translated into 'meme'. 'MAV' must be translated into 'MAV'. 'SUI' must be translated into 'SUI'. 'USDC' must be translated into 'USDC'. 'INJ' must be translated into 'INJ'. 'RON' must be translated into 'RON'. 'ONG' must be translated into 'ONG'.
The U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission recently filed amicus briefs with the Supreme Court in support of a class action lawsuit filed by Nvidia investors. The case involves allegations that Nvidia hid sales data related to cryptocurrency mining GPU sales, which has been in legal proceedings since 2018. (Continue reading)
2. Yuan Aifei and her husband's new video "Are We Truly Happy After Financial Freedom?" Husband reveals: I secretly bought BTC and ETH
In the YouTube video "Are We Truly Happy After Financial Freedom?" by Yuan Aifei and her husband, the husband, nicknamed "Old Fish," revealed that he secretly bought BTC and ETH. (Continue reading)
By the way, when your assets are not yet at a certain scale, you don't really need to do hedging!
I also bought a little bit of cryptocurrency, but I didn't buy those speculative ones, like very small and unknown ones. I once bought a little bit of BTC and ETH, and now I just leave them there.
3. Is the trillion-dollar AI investment destined to be a bubble? MIT professor reveals 3 possible futures after the hype subsides
MIT economics professor Daron Acemoglu stated that the tech industry is pouring billions of dollars into AI infrastructure investments, but most of this funding will likely be wasted, and he outlined 3 possible outcomes after the AI hype subsides. Additionally, Acemoglu strongly warned that the current level of overheating and investment could potentially lead to an economic collapse in the future. (Continue reading)
This is good news for workers, but bad news for those companies that have invested tens of billions of dollars hoping to boost productivity. A lot of money will be wasted, and this 5% change will not bring about an economic revolution.
4. Solana meme coin DARE founder "self-immolated" in front of the camera to pump the price, regretted not cashing out in time
Mikol, the developer of the Solana blockchain meme coin, suffered severe burns from an extreme publicity stunt of self-immolation, and was forced to be hospitalized for treatment. After 5 months of recovery, he ultimately announced his withdrawal from the project and deeply reflected on the speculative meme coin culture in the crypto space. (Continue reading)
"In this circle, everyone is pursuing money; everything else is secondary."
5. A major twist in the Satoshi Nakamoto mystery! HBO producer claims to have met the real person, Polymarket bets point to Nick Szabo as the top candidate
HBO's latest documentary "Cryptopia: Bitcoin's Mysterious Origins" premiered today, promising to reveal the true identity of the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto. However, the odds for the previously frontrunner Len Sassaman have dropped significantly, with the latest data indicating that Nick Szabo has become the top candidate. (Continue reading)
