If "King of Understanding" is elected, 73,000 may just be the starting point

Since August 5, Bitcoin has shown a trend of slow upward movement, with new breakthroughs almost every month. At the same time, with the gradual clarification of the expectation of ample liquidity, in the past week, Altcoins represented by MEME, AI, and MOVE public chains have continued to surge, and the money-making effect of the market is gradually emerging. Different from the previous rapid rise and fall, the pace of this round of the market is very slow and warm. Not only has Bitcoin repeatedly pulled up and washed down, but the Altcoin market has also been mainly rotational, and the market has rarely seen a general upward trend. Although this slow and warm state makes it difficult for most people to profit quickly, it also reflects the sustainability of the upward trend. After all, under the pattern of stock, each concentrated outbreak of bullish sentiment is often a signal of the periodic top of the market. Therefore, repeated washing and steady advancement is the ideal form for a slow bull and a long bull. Although Bitcoin is still 12% away from its historical high, the total open interest in the futures market has reached a new high. The rapid surge in open interest means that both the bulls and bears have stronger expectations of an imminent market reversal, and they have started to deploy their forces, preparing for a showdown, so the intraday battles have become unusually fierce recently. For example, on October 15, the intraday volatility of Bitcoin was only 3.2%, but the liquidation amount reached $360 million, with $220 million liquidated in just one hour from 21:00 to 22:00. Clearly, the major players are using the impatient sentiment in the market to repeatedly harvest the high-leverage positions. From the trading perspective, the recent rise of Bitcoin is largely due to the increased probability of Donald Trump being elected as the new President of the United States. PredictIt betting data shows that Harris' lead has been narrowing since late September and was surpassed by Trump on October 14, with the latter's winning probability reaching 54%. This time point is highly consistent with the start of Bitcoin's rise. On October 15, opinion polls in various states in the United States showed that Trump's support rate has exceeded Harris in seven key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. If the election situation is consistent with the polls, Trump will ultimately win 302 electoral votes, exceeding the 270 votes needed to win. Affected by this, Bitcoin continued to rise during the session, breaking through the key resistance level of $66,500. Although Harris has also frequently sent friendly signals to the crypto market recently, these empty words are powerless compared to Trump's heart-touching promises and deep interest ties. First, Trump has promised to take measures to ensure the leading position of the United States in the field of cryptocurrencies, planning to include Bitcoin in the national reserves and fire the SEC chairman Gary Gensler, who is known as the "crypto killer". Secondly, Trump himself is deeply involved in the crypto market, not only issuing Non-Fungible Tokens multiple times, but also frequently promoting the WLFI token issued by his family on social media. In addition, Trump's biggest donor and advisor member - Musk, is also a supporter of Bitcoin and Dogecoin. After the media disclosed that Musk had spent $75 million to support Trump, Dogecoin surged by more than 12%. Therefore, it can be foreseen that whether it is to fulfill his campaign promises, expand family benefits, or reward his supporters, Trump will have sufficient motivation to introduce policies to boost the crypto market after being elected. Currently, the stock market's bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin is fully reflected in the valuation deviation of MicroStrategy (MSTR). According to MSTR's disclosure, the company holds a total of 252,220 Bitcoins, worth about $17 billion, while the company's current total market value is $37.8 billion. Referring to the EV/Revenue multiples of 3 to 5 times for mature business intelligence companies like Tableau and Qlik, the valuation of MicroStrategy's core business is between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion. Even taking the upper limit of $2.5 billion, the market's premium rate for MSTR's Bitcoin assets is still as high as 107.65% [(37.8 billion - 2.5 billion - 17 billion) / 17 billion]. This indicates that investors who currently buy MSTR stocks still expect Bitcoin to have more than double the upside. In terms of operation, although Bitcoin has accumulated a 38% increase since the low point on August 5, due to the very thorough washing during the rebound process, the current chip structure of Bitcoin is relatively stable. Even if there is a short-term adjustment, it will most likely unfold in a very mild manner. For trend investors, this kind of volatility can be completely ignored.