Odaily星球日报讯 中金在《特朗普政策对美国经济的潜在影响》一文中指出：“在普通假设情形下，我们预计美联储会继续降息，但降息速度将放缓，终点（中性）利率也会更高。而在极端假设情形下，美联储的态度将转“鹰”并在 2025 年重启加息，因为决策者不大可能容忍通胀重新回升到 5%以上。” 文章进一步指出：“考虑到遏制通胀一般需要名义政策利率高于通胀（即实际政策利率为正数），这意味着美联储可能需要在 2025 年加息 75 至 100 个基点。” （Odaily 注：美国曾在 1984 年-1986 年的降息周期中反复小幅加息过，主要原因是为了应对通胀和经济过热的风险。）

Odaily星球日报讯 中金在《特朗普政策对美国经济的潜在影响》一文中指出：“在普通假设情形下，我们预计美联储会继续降息，但降息速度将放缓，终点（中性）利率也会更高。而在极端假设情形下，美联储的态度将转“鹰”并在 2025 年重启加息，因为决策者不大可能容忍通胀重新回升到 5%以上。”文章进一步指出：“考虑到遏制通胀一般需要名义政策利率高于通胀（即实际政策利率为正数），这意味着美联储可能需要在 2025 年加息 75 至 100 个基点。”（Odaily 注：美国曾在 1984 年-1986 年的降息周期中反复小幅加息过，主要原因是为了应对通胀和经济过热的风险。）

中金：极端情况下，美联储可能在2025年重启加息

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the US Economy", China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out: "Under normal assumptions, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. Under extreme assumptions, the Federal Reserve's attitude will turn "hawkish" and it will restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation returning to above 5%." The article further pointed out: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be higher than inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025." (Odaily note: The United States has repeatedly made small rate hikes during the interest rate cut cycle from 1984 to 1986, mainly to address the risks of inflation and economic overheating.)

Odaily Planet Daily reported that in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the US Economy", China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out: "Under normal assumptions, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In the extreme scenario, the Federal Reserve's attitude will turn "hawkish" and it will restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation returning to above 5%." The article further stated: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be higher than inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025." (Odaily note: The US had repeatedly made small rate hikes during the 1984-1986 rate cut cycle, mainly to address the risks of inflation and economic overheating.)

CICC: In extreme cases, the Fed may resume raising interest rates in 2025

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that on October 22, <2024 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Daly> stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market.

Daly said at the <Wall Street Journal TechLive conference> held in Laguna Beach, California on Monday that "so far, I have not seen any information indicating that we will not continue to lower interest rates. For an economy that has already embarked on a 2% inflation rate path, this is a very tight interest rate, and I do not want to see the labor market deteriorate further."

She added that the goal is to achieve a "soft landing", that is, to reduce the inflation rate to 2% and maintain a healthy labor market, with wage levels keeping up with price increases. She said that as the inflation rate declines, the Federal Reserve needs to continue to lower the policy interest rate, otherwise it may make the policy overly tight and harm the labor market.

Fed's Daly: Expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market

Odaily Planet Daily News: Fed's Logan: If the economy meets expectations, it is expected to gradually cut interest rates (Golden Ten Data APP)

Fed's Logan: If the economy meets expectations, we expect to gradually cut interest rates

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting by 25 basis points in November is 91.1%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 8.9%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 2.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points cut is 29.5%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points cut is 68.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis points cut is 0%.