1. Even the old horse has bought laser radar and started researching it. Relying solely on pure visual-based autonomous driving solutions, I feel that the TRON intelligent driving solution with laser radar and vision is more stable.
Tesla's solution has indeed incorporated laser radar, but overall it is still a vision-based intelligent solution. The way this solution uses laser radar and the way the laser radar solution uses laser radar are quite different.
The most important difference between the two is the difference in data processing.
In my understanding: the vision-based intelligent solution uses artificial intelligence to mimic the human brain's judgment of the environment and driving to solve the problems encountered in the driving process; but the laser radar solution is more similar to the traditional rule-based processing method.
Coincidentally, during this period, I have read several books on artificial intelligence and ChatGPT.
In my understanding, before ChatGPT, the reason why a series of other artificial intelligence (especially "natural language processing") solutions have not achieved the current success is that people have always been using a long-standing view in their research, that is:
To make machines learn is to feed the machines the rules and regulations summarized by humans, so that the machines have to compare the thousands of rules stored in them to select a solution when processing each piece of data.
But the rules in the real world are infinite, especially a lot of "implicit rules" that often only exist in our brains, and we can only "apprehend but not express" them - they are very difficult to describe in language, let alone input them into machines.
But GPT's solution is completely different. It does not tell the machine the rules summarized by humans, but only feeds the machine the real data and results, allowing the machine to compare and adjust the parameters by itself, thereby training its own "understanding" of the world.
The result of doing this is: we don't know why the machine can understand this world, what rules it has discovered. But we know that through this way of training machines, they can indeed be very close to or even surpass the human brain in neural computing.
So I tend to think that the vision-based intelligent solution is more suitable for autonomous driving, because the effect it achieves is like human driving, and it will do better than humans.
2. Buffett has been reducing his holdings in U.S. stocks recently. How do you view his reduction behavior? Is he seeing some risks?
I have shared my understanding of similar questions in previous articles.
I think many people are over-interpreting the old gentleman's behavior.
The old gentleman has said something similar to the following at shareholder Q&A meetings more than once:
I said I won't predict the market, and I won't predict macroeconomic risks, but people just won't believe me.
The reasons why the old gentleman is selling stocks, which I have listed in the previous article, are the reasons the old gentleman himself has said, and I can list them again:
- Because the insurance companies under his control need cash to guard against risks
- Feeling that the price of a stock is too high, possibly far exceeding its intrinsic value
- Found other stocks that are more worth buying than the ones he is selling, or need cash to acquire a company that is worth fully acquiring
These are the reasons.
After reading some of the old gentleman's books, I feel that he often talks about very basic principles, but most people don't pay attention to these principles, let alone believe in them, and are more interested in shortcuts, speculation and taking shortcuts.
3. The overall level of the U.S. stock market is currently at a historical high, with the Dow Jones index constantly hitting new highs. If the U.S. stock market adjusts, will it be a complete collapse, with individual stocks generally pulling back?
In the past, I would have been very concerned about some of the financial risks that might occur in the financial markets in the future, and would have actively tried to predict and speculate in order to try to avoid such a big drop.
But after reading the old gentleman's books this year, my inner peace has increased a lot, and my fear of these potential risks has diminished a lot, and I have also had less of an urge to predict and speculate.
Sometimes, even if I do some prediction and speculation, it is more of a casual behavior rather than being so obsessed and serious about it.
This is probably the most valuable treasure I have gained in my heart over the years.
Back to the question.
The U.S. stock market will certainly have adjustments and even stock market crashes, but when, how much the drop will be, is hard to predict, it may be tomorrow, or next year, or even further years.
But I don't think that's important, what's important is:
If investing in U.S. stock individual stocks, then look at whether the current price of the stock is too much discounted from its value.
If this is hard to judge, then try to think abstractly, whether the company has the potential to continue to lead the pack and shine again in the future.
If this is also hard to judge, then see if the company's leader is a once-in-a-century, once-in-a-millennium genius.
If investing in the U.S. stock index, then think about whether the current index performance is greatly exceeding the actual situation of the U.S. economy.
If this is hard to judge, then think about the long-term future of the U.S. economy.
Whether it's U.S. stock individual stocks or the U.S. stock index, I think the ultimate criterion for judgment is the sentence that Buffett the old gentleman has said, and I have also shared in the article, and I will share it again:
As long as America upholds the market economy and the rule of law, American companies will continue to create miracles and create wealth.
So if we judge that America can do these two things, then even if the U.S. stock market encounters risks, that is only temporary, and it will eventually shine again, and now we only need to consider whether we can bear this temporary risk; if we judge that America cannot do these two things, then we should unhesitatingly leave the U.S. stock market.
The several senior masters I have read basically only measure whether they can bear the possible risks, and basically ignore when the risks will come and how severe the risks will be.
