Moody's: Latest economic data could boost Harris' chances

Odaily Odaily News: Although Trump has a clear advantage in the prediction market, those betting on Trump may need to consider the latest economic data, which shows that Harris, as the incumbent party candidate, may benefit from substantial tailwinds. This is the conclusion drawn by analysts at Moody's Analytics based on research on past presidential elections. Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "The analytical model shows that the winner of this election is still unknown, because four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, accounting for a total of 57 electoral votes - are considered to be toss-up." A recent simulation for a client showed that mortgage rates, which have fallen significantly since last year, and the continued decline in gasoline prices are improving Harris's chances of winning. The growth of household income may also help improve Harris's chances of winning. Begley said: "Harris's expected popular vote advantage nationwide has increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to our upward revision of our forecasts for actual household income in each state." The results of running the model 1,000 times showed that Harris had a 55.5% chance of winning. (Jinshi)