Author: BitpushNews
On October 30, the financial market showed a divergent performance. Spot gold hit a new all-time high, while BTC entered a consolidation phase after approaching its historical high the previous day.
In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones index, and the Nasdaq index all closed lower, down 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.56% respectively.
Macroeconomic data was mixed: US Q3 GDP growth slowed to 2.8%, lower than the 3% expectation. However, the labor market performed better than expected, indicating a strong economic foundation.
The latest data did not change the market's expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting, but investors chose to remain cautious before the release of key data such as the September monthly PCE index and the employment report.
Although BTC has retreated in the short term, factors such as the derivatives market, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment all indicate that the long-term upward trend of BTC remains unchanged.
Derivatives Market: Strong Demand Supports High Premiums
Data from laevitas.ch shows that the current annualized premium of BTC futures contracts is as high as 13%, far above the neutral market level. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the market, and investors are willing to pay a higher premium for a longer holding period.
The options market also remains active, indicating investors' high attention to future price volatility. The high premium and active options market together suggest that the market is bullish on BTC in the long run.
On-chain Data: Net Outflow from Exchanges, Indicating Stronger Long-term Holding Intention
On-chain data shows that the net outflow of BTC from exchanges has increased, indicating that investors are transferring BTC to cold wallets for long-term holding. This further corroborates the market's long-term bullishness on BTC.
The chart of glassnode's 6-hour average net transfer volume to exchanges shows that although the amount deposited to exchanges briefly increased after BTC broke through $70,000, it subsequently turned into a net outflow, indicating that investors are locking in profits and preparing for future upside.
From a technical perspective, TradingView analyst Arman Shaban believes that once BTC breaks its all-time high, its price will rise to $77,000 or even higher.
He said: "By analyzing the BTC chart on a weekly timeframe, we can see that after our previous analysis, BTC has risen more than 10%, from $66,500 to $73,600, and is now only $100 away from its all-time high. After that, BTC has slightly retraced to $72,000, but I still expect the previous high to be broken soon, and BTC to reach even higher levels. The next bullish targets are $77,000, $81,700, and $93,800."
Technical analyst AXEL Adler Jr. stated on the X platform that $86,200 is an important technical level for the current BTC cycle. Through in-depth research on short-term holder data, he found that this price level represents the upper limit of the current market risk appetite.
Adler said: "At the $86,200 level, the fate of the bull market will be determined. If the price breaks through this point and forms a strong bullish momentum, we will finally see the trend that everyone has been waiting for."
