Original Title: "Polymarket | What will happen if Trump loses the election?"
Author: Zaddycoin
Compiled by: TechFlow
Please do your own research, this is just a personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.
If, according to market rules, Trump is reported by @AP, @Foxnews, and @NBCNews to have lost the election, I predict that the @Polymarket US Presidential Election market will experience two "disputes", and retail traders may suffer losses by chasing the possibility of the market reversing the outcome.
In other words, if the market determines that Trump has lost, the market may go through two disputes, and retail traders may go all-in, hoping the market will overturn the disputed result. Please refer to this.
But remember, you're not Tom Brady... If Trump loses, those who believe in TRUMPYES will not give up easily, and may be even more tenacious than the supporters of HARRISYES. However, rules are rules, and @Polymarket reminds everyone of the consequences if this happens.
Market Rules
Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Let me explain.
Dispute Mechanism
Anyone can dispute the market resolution within about a day by staking $750 on the @UMAprotocol. This is a small amount for the platform's liquidity. Traders can dispute the market twice before it is fully resolved.
This is an example of a reversed double dispute. (These examples show what a disputed market looks like).
Given the rule requirement for all these news outlets to confirm, and based on precedents of past disputed markets on Polymarket, I expect the market to enter a double dispute stage, and the $UMA token holders (UMA voters) will ultimately determine the outcome as "Trump loses".
Potential Arbitrage Opportunities
During this period, I predict some arbitrage opportunities will emerge, targeting those investors who want to try to reverse the market outcome and get a 100x return (betting 1% on TRUMPYES, hoping to profit 100x if the market reverses). During the dispute period, the market will initially price TRUMPYES at 1% and TRUMPNO at 99%, and as more people try to put money in to chase the 100x opportunity, the market volatility may increase (creating arbitrage opportunities).
Honestly, these are like slot machines in the prediction markets.
Some may say "there's a 100x chance, I'll put in a little", while others may confidently put in large amounts. Ah...
I won't gamble on that 100x chance, but will put my money on the 99% probability, as the market should be determined as "Trump loses" after the dispute period.
Note: The arbitrage opportunities may be small, as the "100x bettors" alone cannot drive the market change.
In the RFK market, the market fell to 96% YES after resolution on Friday. During the dispute period, those savvy investors (OGs) who understand Polymarket's stance on disputes can leverage the market rules to get a 6% free arbitrage gain.
How to Gauge the Timing?
If @AP, @Foxnews, and @NBCNews announce that Trump has lost the election, my prediction may come true.
Imagine if @FoxNews, out of support for Trump, does not announce the winner. That would be very interesting.
I'm not sure if there's been a precedent for this before, but if it does happen, that would be fascinating.
I sympathize with @Polymarket, because if any of these hypothetical outcomes come to pass, it could lead to a very complex situation involving a lot of money. Again, these are just some thought-provoking hypothetical ideas based on a combination of various variables, so please think about them with that in mind. At the same time, I'd also like to hear the thoughts of @Domahhhh, @hosseeb, and others.
Let the game begin.
