PANews reported on November 4 that according to CoinDesk's analysis, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is about to face its fourth U.S. presidential election. Data from the previous three elections shows that Bitcoin has always maintained an upward trend after U.S. elections, never falling back to the election day price. If this trend appears again, Bitcoin's price should reach its peak about a year later.
- The 2012 U.S. presidential election was also held on November 5, when the Bitcoin price was around $11. In November 2013, the Bitcoin price reached its peak, with a surge of nearly 12,000%, rising to over $1,100.
- In the first week of November 2016, the U.S. presidential election, the Bitcoin price was around $700. In December 2017, the Bitcoin price reached a peak of around $18,000, an increase of about 3,600%.
- The 2020 U.S. presidential election, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Bitcoin rise 478% in the following year, reaching a market high of around $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin set a new high of over $73,000.
After each Bitcoin halving event, although its price is much higher than four years ago, the growth rate has narrowed, and the rate of return has gradually decreased. The percentage decline between the first and second numbers is 70%, and the decline between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume that the decline this time is about 90%, it means that the post-election increase will be about 47.8%. This will bring Bitcoin to around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
