Odaily星球日报讯 道明证券表示，在特朗普胜选后，最新的市场反应表明，市场预期将出现减税和关税的组合，推高美联储的中性利率。我们正在更改对美联储的预测，因为通胀上升会导致 2025 年的降息步伐放缓。我们现在预计美联储将在 11 月、12 月和 1 月各降息 25 个基点，然后在 3 月暂停降息。美联储将在 2025 年继续以“降息—暂停—降息”的步伐，到 2025 年底将利率下调至 3.5%，这比此前 3.0%的预期更高。在 2026 年上半年，美联储将降息至 3.0%，这意味着我们没有看到中性利率有任何变化，只是美联储会晚点到达那里。（金十）

道明证券：美联储将更迟到达中性利率水平

Odaily Odaily reported that TD Securities said that after Trump&#39;s victory, the latest market reaction shows that the market expects a combination of tax cuts and tariffs to push up the Fed&#39;s neutral interest rate. We are changing our forecast for the Fed because rising inflation will lead to a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in November, December and January, and then pause in March. The Fed will continue its pace of &quot;cut-pause-cut&quot; in 2025, cutting interest rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which is higher than the previous expectation of 3.0%. In the first half of 2026, the Fed will cut interest rates to 3.0%, which means that we have not seen any changes in the neutral interest rate, but that the Fed will get there later. (Jinshi)

TD Securities: The Fed will reach a neutral interest rate later

1. Jeffrey: Powell may not explicitly discuss the impact of Trump's victory on increased spending, but he knows in his heart that it will drive the economy.
2. Bank of America: The Fed may currently ignore the impact of tariffs on inflation, viewing it as a short-term price fluctuation, and focus on the consequences of negative growth.
3. Standard Chartered Bank: Before the Fed digests the impact of the election, it may not want to surprise the market, but the probability of inaction has increased.
4. Panxin Macro: Although the Fed will still cut interest rates today, with Trump about to take office, the Fed's room for further rate cuts may be weakened.
5. JPMorgan Chase: The election was settled before the Fed meeting, so the rate cut is still justified, but the Fed needs to be cautious in its forward guidance.
6. DBS Bank: The actual federal funds rate has already risen to 2.6%, so regardless of the US election result, the Fed has room to cut rates this week.
7. Nordea: It will take some time for the impact of Trump's policies on inflation to be reflected, and the Fed still needs time to eliminate its dovish bias.
8. Nordea SEB: The Fed will not incorporate Trump's victory into its near-term decisions until it has a clear understanding of the new policies and their impact.
9. Amerivet Securities: Trump's victory will not change the Fed's prospect of cutting rates by 25 basis points tonight, but the central bank needs to remain vigilant going forward.
10. Société Générale: Trump's tax policies may lead to rising inflationary pressures and a widening fiscal deficit, which could weaken the Fed's dovish stance.

Summary of views on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analysis suggests that given the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that a reasonable pace of rate cuts should be 25 basis points, and the relatively stable economic data performance in the past two months, although the October non-farm payrolls were significantly weaker, but were largely affected by one-time factors. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is still a high probability event, rather than another 50 basis point cut or no cut. The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in November with a probability of 97.6%, and the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis on the rate cut is as follows: -Goldman Sachs: Consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts are needed; -JPMorgan Chase: The rate cut is still justifiable; -Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.

Analysis: The Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting by 25 basis points in November is 99.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by December is 32.0%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 0.4%.