After Trump's successful win in the presidential election, the market's expectations for Trump's previously promised crypto policies have increased significantly, driving Bitcoin to soar from $69,000 to break through $81,000, and reaching a high of $81,846 today, continuing to hit new historical highs.
Further reading: Reviewing Trump's "Full Support for Cryptocurrencies" Positive Promises: BTC Strategic Reserves, Firing the SEC Chairman, No CBDC...
Building a Bitcoin reserve is a low-probability event
Against the backdrop of Trump's victory, the market expects the pro-crypto attitude of the Trump administration to usher the crypto industry into a golden era. Auros' Managing Director Le Shi, in an interview with Bloomberg, stated:
The dust has just settled on Trump's victory, and since the market believes Trump supports cryptocurrencies, the price increase is just a matter of time, which is exactly what we are seeing now.
Additionally, Binance CEO Richard Teng told the Financial Times that Trump's victory is a major victory for cryptocurrencies:
Trump's victory marks the beginning of the "golden age" of the cryptocurrency industry, which is a "major victory" for cryptocurrencies. Trump's second term is expected to accelerate M&A activity in the cryptocurrency field.
However, among Trump's many pre-election promises, some statements may face legal challenges, such as "firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the first day in office".
But since Gensler's term will continue until July 2026, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is an independent agency, Trump does not have the authority to dismiss him directly, so this promise may have been just rhetoric to hype up the Bitcoin conference. However, based on past experience, SEC chairmen usually resign voluntarily when there is a change in administration.
Analyst: The probability of establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund is low
Furthermore, regarding whether Trump will establish a Bitcoin reserve? Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick stated that the possibility of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve fund is "very low".
However, Kendrick also pointed out that if the Republican Party has full control, the new administration may immediately push for policies supporting digital assets in January 2025, such as repealing Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB121), stablecoin regulation bills, and potentially allowing the SEC to take a more relaxed attitude towards digital assets.
Further reading: How will the U.S. House of Representatives' failure to overturn the SEC's pushed SAB 121 accounting law affect the crypto industry?
Additionally, Kendrick also stated that under full Republican control, areas such as GameFi, tokenization, and DeFi may benefit from the Trump administration's policies and receive ample development:
We believe these positive developments are sufficient to push the overall digital asset market capitalization from the current $2.5 trillion to $10 trillion by the end of 2026.
