Original author: S 4 mmy's Web3 Snippets
Compiled by: TechFlow
I will use my 10 years of experience in traditional finance and corporate sectors to help you break down complex issues into easily understandable chunks.
After the announcement of the presidential election results, the BTC price trend rose sharply, with the expectation that Trump will take office in January.
Last week, the BTC price rose by 35%, reaching $90,000 before a slight pullback. Data source: Trading View.
The trading volume of BTC-related products reached $38 billion.
BlackRock's BTC ETF has surpassed the Gold ETF and the market capitalization of Silver.
On the corporate side:
MicroStrategy currently holds over $20 billion in BTC, and has purchased an additional $2 billion worth of BTC at market prices.
On the government side, there is a proposal suggesting that the US government purchase 200,000 BTC annually over the next five years, which would result in them holding 6% of the total supply by 2030.
Currently, the US is the country holding 213,000 BTC, with the government's BTC holdings accounting for 2.2% of the total supply, but this percentage may increase.
Key market indicators to watch:
Pay attention to the objective indicators of market turnaround:
Global Liquidity (M2 Supply as Reference)
Tracking certain related assets or indicators—M2 supply (3-month offset) is highly correlated with BTC price.
Data source: Zero Hedge.
What does this mean? This is actually a reference indicator for global liquidity. Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal's theory suggests that as liquidity becomes abundant in the market and is invested in assets, these economic decisions have a 3-month lag. This correlation indicates that if BTC continues to track M2 and does not deviate significantly, we may see BTC reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
Fear and Greed Index (69, Nice)
Source: Coin Glass
When using the various indices, be aware of the differences in their methodologies, as some are more sensitive than others. Coin Stats provides a relatively reasonable solution that matches the actual market conditions.
Coinbase Wallet downloads increased by 12% in the past 24 hours
Historically, when Coinbase becomes a top app in the Apple Store or Google Play, this is usually an important market indicator and worth paying attention to.
Currently, Coinbase is ranked 81st in the Apple Store.
BTC's Google Trends Index is at "79"
Source: Google Trends This is an indicator worth watching, as we cannot determine what the "new 100" will be—although the current search volume is 79% of the May 2021 peak, this cycle may see significant growth as more users enter the crypto market.
Venture capital funding levels in the crypto space
Source: Defi Llama We can at least see that the overall trend of funding is rising, so when these funding levels approach or exceed the $7 billion in October 2021, it may be nearing the market top. BTC reached its peak in November 2021, which may mean the market will have a few months of lag.
Exchange fund flows remain neutral
At market tops or bottoms, exchange net flows tend to be highly volatile. Currently, the fund flows remain neutral, indicating that many investors are satisfied with holding spot or on-chain investments.
Crypto-related YouTube viewership
As regular traders see BTC and cryptocurrencies being featured on major news channels, crypto channels may become the primary source of information for non-crypto users. Contrarian trading against mainstream media information may also be an effective strategy when approaching the market top—Rolling Stone magazine was a good indicator at the NFT bear market bottom.
Other indicators to watch:
Time difference between BTC halving events and all-time highs—supply shocks have been embedded in the demand dynamics of the market, and miners also hold large inventories.
Technical analysis indicators like RSI, Pi, and MACD suggest that certain crypto assets may be oversold or undervalued.
Market Value to Realized Value ratio: A ratio of around 3.7 typically indicates the cycle top of the crypto market. The market price needs to be compared to the realized value (i.e., the weighted average of the last on-chain transaction price).
Please check the latest Modern Markets episode for a more comprehensive discussion.
I will gradually compile an analysis report to track these indicators and provide you with weekly updates—please stay tuned.
