Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.98 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.96%, which is $1.79 trillion.The market capitalization of stablecoins is $182.1 billion.

This week, the price of BTC has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price of BTC at $90,962. ETH has shown range-bound fluctuations this week, with the current price at $3,087.On CoinMarketCap, most of the top 200 projects have increased, while a small portion have decreased, among which: ACT has increased by 3368.03% in 7 days, PNUT has increased by 1780.56% in 7 days, PEPE has increased by 115.72% in 7 days, and DOGE has increased by 87.83% in 7 days.

The MEME sector cannot be ignored, and if you miss out on MEME, you may miss out on this bull market.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.845 billion, and the total market value is about to break through $100 billion; the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $535.5 million.

On November 13, according to the "Fed Watch" data from CME, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in December is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 75.7%.

Under the multiple factors of Trump's election as the next US president, the Fed's interest rate cut, BTC's halving, and the continuous inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, BTC is expected to break through the $100,000 mark this year, and attention should be paid to the MEME sector, with optimistic expectations for the subsequent market development.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on November 16 was 80 (higher than last week), and the sentiment this week was 5 days of greed and 2 days of extreme greed.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. Standard Chartered analyst: Expects SOL to hit a new high by the end of the year, and ETH may hit a new high in January 2024 when Trump takes office;

2. a16z Crypto: New projects can safely explore token releases without excessive regulatory concerns;

3. On November 11, DOGE's market capitalization surpassed USDC, becoming the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market cap;

4. Arthur Hayes: Market trends indicate that Trump may abandon the US dollar and print large amounts of money;

5. Sky founder: If Bitcoin reaches $80,000, the revival of DeFi will be confirmed;

6. Trump said Elon Musk and VIVEK will lead the Government Efficiency Department (DOGE);

7. Trump hinted at using "recess appointments" to select the SEC chairman, bypassing Senate confirmation;

8. Coinbase CEO: Cryptocurrencies will become the next version of stocks and the internet;

9. Fed Governor Waller: Stablecoins must be regulated to address the risk of runs;

10. Former SEC chairman: Crypto legislation may be enacted during Trump's presidency;

11. On November 14, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $93,000, setting a new all-time high;

12. After the US CPI announcement, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December increased to 75.7%;

13. Robinhood US has re-listed SOL, ADA, and XRP;

14. The US SEC has approved the listing of Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck on the Nasdaq;

15. Pennsylvania state legislators have proposed a bill to invest in Bitcoin and crypto ETFs to "hedge against inflation";

16. Arkham Exchange trading credits have been launched;

17. GoPlus: The X account of the Pepe NFT project WIF has been hacked, beware of phishing risks;

18. Trump has nominated former SEC chairman Jay Clayton as the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

Macroeconomic

1. On November 15, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler hinted that he may be leaving the SEC;

2. On November 15, Bitwise stated that it has submitted a 19b-4 form to the NYSE Arca, Inc. ("NYSE Arca") to list the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) as an exchange-traded product (ETP);

3. On November 13, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in December is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 75.7% (37.9% and 62.1% respectively before the CPI announcement);

The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January 2024 is 16.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 24.3% (26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6% respectively before the CPI announcement).

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of November 11-15, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.845 billion; as of November 15, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $20.227 billion, and currently holds $20.016 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $43.064 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $98.736 billion, about to break through the $100 billion market value.

The net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $535.5 million.

Foresee the Future

Event Preview

1. The Australian Crypto Convention will be held from November 23 to 24 in Sydney, which is one of the largest cryptocurrency conferences in the Southern Hemisphere, held annually in Australia, aiming to connect investors and decision-makers in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry;

2. The Block will host the "Emergence" Web3 Summit from December 5 to 6 at the Prague Congress Center, which will facilitate the connection between technology and capital, and build a bridge between Wall Street and the crypto sector. The summit will gather representatives from different industries and chains to discuss topics such as ETFs and asset management, and the uncertainty of crypto regulations. Through collaboration with Foresight Ventures, Emergence will provide insights on driving the development of cryptocurrencies in Asia and bridge the gap between Eastern and Western capital and talent.

Project Progress

1. Magic Eden will release the ME token economic model on November 18;

2. The TON ecosystem Layer 2 project DuckChain will conduct an airdrop snapshot on November 18;

3. BNB Chain announced that the BNB Beacon Chain hard fork will take effect on November 19, 2024, at 14:00 (block height 384,544,850). Nodes on the BNB Beacon Chain mainnet must update to version 0.10.24. At that time, the BNB Beacon Chain will cease operation, and new transactions will no longer be processed;

4. The perpetual contract protocol Rage Trade will begin RAGE airdrop distribution on November 21, 2024, and has launched an airdrop query page;

5. The Story Protocol's final testnet Odyssey has been launched, and Iliad will cease operations on November 24.

Important Events

1. FTX has reached a settlement with Evolve Bank and the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, which may allow it to recover up to $21 million in assets. The agreement is pending court approval, with a hearing scheduled for November 20;

2. The proposed settlement hearing between FTX and SBF's former girlfriend Caroline Ellison will be held on November 20, which will allow her to transfer "nearly all remaining assets". Ellison has agreed to transfer any assets not forfeited to the government or used to pay legal fees for FTX creditors in her criminal case;

3. FTX co-founder Gary Wang will appear in court for sentencing on November 20.

4. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will extend the final deadline for the 7RCC spot Bitcoin and carbon credit futures ETF decision to November 21. Crypto asset management firm 7RCC submitted a Bitcoin spot ETF application to the U.S. SEC last December, with 80% in Bitcoin and the remainder in carbon credit futures, and Gemini crypto exchange will provide custody services for the Bitcoin in the fund.

Token Unlocks

1. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on November 18 at 8:00, worth approximately $53.3 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;

2. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 53.55 million tokens on November 19, worth approximately $10.41 million, accounting for 1.07% of the circulating supply;

3. Merlin Chain (MERL) will unlock 28.25 million tokens on November 19, worth approximately $7.95 million, accounting for 1.35% of the circulating supply;

4. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 21.63 thousand tokens on November 21, worth approximately $111 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply.